Geographic Profiling A Component of Criminal Profiling CRIM B55

Geographic Profiling: Case Types Serial Murder Serial Murder Serial Rape Serial Rape Arson Arson Bank Robbery Bank Robbery Burglary Burglary Kidnapping Kidnapping Bombings Bombings

Geo Profiling Elements Complete familiarity w/case file Complete familiarity w/case file Examination of C/Ss Examination of C/Ss Interviews w/ investigators and Ws Interviews w/ investigators and Ws Study of area maps Study of area maps Analysis of neighborhood demographics: - --abduction site and body dump site Analysis of neighborhood demographics: - --abduction site and body dump site Computerized analysis Computerized analysis

Geo Profiling Elements Distance Perceptions (subjective)+ Actual Distance Perceptions (subjective)+ Actual Mobility and Alternative routes (Plan B) Mobility and Alternative routes (Plan B) Familiarity with “route” + and – aspects Familiarity with “route” + and – aspects Number and Types of barriers: natural, structural, jurisdictional, psychological Number and Types of barriers: natural, structural, jurisdictional, psychological Mental Maps (S “image” of the city) Mental Maps (S “image” of the city) Locality demographics: Age, Race, SES, Locality demographics: Age, Race, SES, Land Use: Zoning, topography, etc. Land Use: Zoning, topography, etc.

Geo Pro: Underlying Principles Valid linkage analysis to determine that a set of crime sites belong to the same series (S,V, C/S inputs) Valid linkage analysis to determine that a set of crime sites belong to the same series (S,V, C/S inputs) Valid geographic modeling of the travel distance to crime sites for a particular type of crime, criminal, and geographic area (Computer programs) Valid geographic modeling of the travel distance to crime sites for a particular type of crime, criminal, and geographic area (Computer programs)

Computer Models in Geo Pro Rigel—Professor K. Rossmo (Texas State U at San Marcos) + ECRI Rigel—Professor K. Rossmo (Texas State U at San Marcos) + ECRI VICLAS--RCMP VICLAS--RCMP VICAP--FBI VICAP--FBI Predator—Professor Maurice Godwin Predator—Professor Maurice Godwin HALT—NYSP HALT—NYSP HITS- Washington State AG HITS- Washington State AG

Investigative Questions to Consider Locations Locations What are the location types connected to this crime or crime series? What are the location types connected to this crime or crime series? Where are these locations? Map them! Where are these locations? Map them! What are the distances and travel times between them? What are the distances and travel times between them?

Investigative Questions to Consider Time Time When did the crimes occur (date, time, weekday)? When did the crimes occur (date, time, weekday)? What was the weather? What was the weather? How much time was there between crimes? How much time was there between crimes?

Investigative Questions to Consider Site Selection Site Selection How are the crime locations accessed? How are the crime locations accessed? What else is in the general area? What else is in the general area? How might the offender have known of these locations? How might the offender have known of these locations? What purpose did the crime locations serve? What purpose did the crime locations serve?

Investigative Questions to Consider Target Backcloth Target Backcloth Where is the target group (and where is it not)? Where is the target group (and where is it not)? How much control did the offender have over the choice of crime locations? How much control did the offender have over the choice of crime locations? Has displacement (in space or time) occurred? Has displacement (in space or time) occurred?

Investigative Questions to Consider Hunting Hunting What hunting method did the offender use? What hunting method did the offender use? Why these sites and not others? Why these sites and not others? What was the offender's likely transportation? What was the offender's likely transportation?

Investigative Strategies and Geo Pro Applications Prioritizing S list Prioritizing S list Prioritizing Tips list Prioritizing Tips list Address searches: databases (zip codes) Address searches: databases (zip codes) Patrol saturation (selective enforcement) Patrol saturation (selective enforcement) Surveillances Surveillances Canvasses and searches Canvasses and searches DNA searches DNA searches

Investigation- Stranger Cases Find OffenderProve Guilt Collect Suspects Prioritiz e EvaluateDirect /Indir ect Evide nce Public Tips Witnes se s Inform an ts Friend s Family Neighb or s Databa se s Crimin al Re co rd s Police Files DMV Other Ag en ci es Physical Desc riptio n Opportunity Motive Means Modus Operandi Composite Sketch Video Alibi Suspect Interview Interviews of Family, Friends, and Neighbors Witness Behavior General Specific Confession Geograph y General Specific Physical Eviden ce

CGT Considerations (Rossmo) Known movement patterns Known movement patterns Comfort zones Comfort zones Hunting patterns Hunting patterns R handed S flee left; discard W right R handed S flee left; discard W right Lost Male S go downhill Lost Male S go downhill Lost Female S go uphill Lost Female S go uphill Need at least 5 crimes or C/Ss to make it work—must be clearly linked Need at least 5 crimes or C/Ss to make it work—must be clearly linked

Encounter Sites: Godwin Model Urban subcultures (bars, night clubs, and red light areas) Urban subcultures (bars, night clubs, and red light areas) Isolated landscapes (parking lots, jogging paths, and rest areas) Isolated landscapes (parking lots, jogging paths, and rest areas) Areas with a high concentration of elderly and poor individuals Areas with a high concentration of elderly and poor individuals Derelict areas of a city Derelict areas of a city University campuses University campuses

Crime Locations** for Geo Pro Encounter Site Encounter Site Attack Site Attack Site Crime Site Crime Site Victim Disposal Site Victim Disposal Site Vehicle Dump Site Vehicle Dump Site **Importance of Displacement ** Analysis used in murder and rape cases

Offender Styles: Target Selection Hunter (searches for a specific victim in home territory) Hunter (searches for a specific victim in home territory) Poacher (travels away from home for hunting) Poacher (travels away from home for hunting) Troller (opportunistic encounters while occupied in other activities) Troller (opportunistic encounters while occupied in other activities) Trapper (creates a situation to draw a victim to him) Trapper (creates a situation to draw a victim to him)

CGT Method (ECRI + Rigel) Spatial characteristics of crime assessed Spatial characteristics of crime assessed Topographical map produced (similar crimes) Topographical map produced (similar crimes) Graphing of jeopardy surface Graphing of jeopardy surface Superimposition on street map Superimposition on street map Crimes pinpointed (old pin maps!) Crimes pinpointed (old pin maps!) “Fingerprints” of S cognitive map “Fingerprints” of S cognitive map > # of C/Ss  > predictive value > # of C/Ss  > predictive value

Hit Score Calculation Hit Score: The value (z-score) associated with the location of an offender’s residence or anchor point. Hit Score: The value (z-score) associated with the location of an offender’s residence or anchor point. Hit Score Percentage: An indicator of search efficiency used in geographic profiling, measured by determining the proportion of the total hunting area covered before the offender’s residence is encountered. The smaller the number, the better the focus of the geographic profile. Hit Score Percentage: An indicator of search efficiency used in geographic profiling, measured by determining the proportion of the total hunting area covered before the offender’s residence is encountered. The smaller the number, the better the focus of the geographic profile.

Hit Score Percentages Describes Optimal Search Process Describes Optimal Search Process Starts at most probable area  outward Starts at most probable area  outward Measures proportion of hunting area covered before locating S residence Measures proportion of hunting area covered before locating S residence Search area=locations covered Search area=locations covered Smaller number=better geo profile focus Smaller number=better geo profile focus Ex: 70 cases (See: Inv. Trainor’s cases) Ex: 70 cases (See: Inv. Trainor’s cases)

Inputs in the GP Model

Relationship to Criminal Profiling Psychological Motivation Psychological Motivation Organized/Disorganized Behavior Organized/Disorganized Behavior Offender Lifestyle demographics Offender Lifestyle demographics Target Selection and Victim Risk Target Selection and Victim Risk Integration w/ CGT (Criminal Geographic Targeting) Integration w/ CGT (Criminal Geographic Targeting)

Rafael Resendez-Ramirez Case

Richard Kuklinski Case

Dennis Rader--BTK

Richard Trenton Chase Case

Wayne Williams Case

Andrei Chikatilo--Ukraine

Henry Lee Lucas Case

Aileen Wournos (never profiled)

Just Some Fun!