Non-Climate Scenarios: The 2000 SRES Frans Berkhout SPRU-Science and Technology Policy Research University of Sussex.

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Presentation transcript:

Non-Climate Scenarios: The 2000 SRES Frans Berkhout SPRU-Science and Technology Policy Research University of Sussex

Why scenarios? The future is not like the present The future is uncertain - many outcomes are plausible Need a framework for handling diverse and uncertain outcomes

What is a futures scenario?

Exploratory scenarios seek... ‘...to illuminate choices of the present in the light of possible futures...’ (Godet, 1996)

Special challenges in building non-climate scenarios Novelty and innovation Reflexivity Contested futures

Scenario approaches Extrapolatory Normative (backcasting) Exploratory

Components of non-climate scenarios Storyline Indicators/parameters

SRES Scenarios Need for emissions parameters for climate models Covers all radiatively important gases 4 ‘macro-regions’ 6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM

Process Review Identify drivers Formulate narrative storylines Quantify storylines using models ‘Open’ review process

Ground-rules No ‘business as usual’ scenario No probabilities ascribed No climate policy assumed No adaptation assumed

Principal dynamics Population growth GDP growth Energy and technological change Land-use change

The scenario dimensions ECONOMIC GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL REGIONAL A1 A2 B1B2

Scenario storylines A1: rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid adoption of new technologies, convergence of regions, capacity building, increased social interaction, reduced region differences in per capita income

Scenario storylines A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and local identities preserved, high population growth, regionally-specific economic growth, fragmented economic and technological development

Scenario storylines B1: convergent world with low population growth, transition to service and info economy, resource productivity improvements, clean technology towards global solutions

Scenario storylines B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, moderate population growth, intermediate levels of economic growth, less rapid technological change

Some problems and weaknesses Conceptual framework not well specified Feedbacks between environmental and social and economic development not considered Too much emphasis on conventional drivers (I=PAT formula)