Policy Analysis in a political context: Northern Gateway Pipeline case study

Today’s agenda Analysis vs Advocacy Bardach’s 8 step review Better list? Applications to NGP

Policy Cycle Model Agenda-Setting Policy Formulation Decisionmaking Policy Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation

Policy Formulation Thinking Talking Policy analysis of alternatives Consultation with stakeholders

Analysis vs. Advocacy Analysis advocacy Neutral stance on Solutions, Problem framing Careful, balanced use of evidence Position based on group’s interest Strategic framing More selective use of evidence Does effective analysis ignore other side’s argument, or engage it? The best argument explicitly addresses an opponents strongest claim and discredits it with evidence and reason

8-fold path September 23, 2008 FRST 415/POLI 333

Bardach 8-fold path define the problem assemble some evidence construct the alternatives select the criteria project the outcomes confront the trade-offs decide! tell your story September 23, 2008 FRST 415/POLI 333

6-step Patton and Sawieki – Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning Verify, define and detail the problem Establish evaluation criteria Identify alternative policies Assess alternative policies Display and distinguish among alternatives Implement, monitor, and evaluate the policy

Essential Steps Define problem Criteria for evaluation Identify multiple alternatives Outcomes/consequences of alternatives Compare/tradeoff Recommended decision

1. Problem definition don’t confuse with solutions quantify if possible be skeptical about common causal claims

2. Criteria for evaluation apply to outcomes, not alternatives build on problem definition common: Effectiveness Efficiency (cost-effectiveness) equity political acceptability robustness and improvability

3. Identify multiple alternatives start comprehensive, end up focused

4. Project Outcomes/Consequences projection = model + evidence attach magnitude estimates breakeven estimates avoid excessive optimism scenario-writing other person’s shoes

5. Compare/Tradeoff Commensurability Confront the tradeoffs

5. Compare/Tradeoff Alternatives/ criteria

Next week: Policy instruments Which combination of instruments should be used to alter the energy system to reach climate targets?