Presented by Aditi Das Jordan Peasel Yanan(Phoebe) Tan Chris Zakhem NYSE: SIX Presented on 12/8/2015
Investment Manager 2 Aditi Das Senior Accounting & Finance Jordan Peasel Senior Accounting & Finance Chris Zakhem Senior Finance & Minor in Chemistry Phoebe Tan Senior Finance & Minor in Statistics
Agenda 3 Screening Process Company Review Microeconomics Conditions Industry Review Recent Stock Performance Financial Analysis Financial Projection Valuation Recommendation
Screening Process 4 Market Cap: $4.88 B Piotroski’s Test: 6 Diversification Strong ROE Six Flags
Company Overview Annual Report 16 Theme Parks in the US 1 Theme Park in Canada 1 Theme Park in Mexico Looking to add another in Mexico 16 Theme Parks in the US 1 Theme Park in Canada 1 Theme Park in Mexico Looking to add another in Mexico Six Flags has over 800 rides, 130 of them are roller coaster rides Has rights to Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Tweety Bird, Yosemite Sam, Batman, Superman, Yogi Bear, Scooby-Doo, The Flintstones for merchandise, advertisement and entertainment
Company Review Annual Report; Bloomberg
SWOT Analysis 7 Strong Diversification of services within Theme Parks Exclusive rights on characters to be used in Theme Parks Well Designed Website Strong Diversification of services within Theme Parks Exclusive rights on characters to be used in Theme Parks Well Designed Website High R&D Costs High Sunk Costs High Capital Expenditures Dependence on Seasonal Workforce High R&D Costs High Sunk Costs High Capital Expenditures Dependence on Seasonal Workforce International Growth through franchising in Europe and Asia Discussions of new park in Mexico International Growth through franchising in Europe and Asia Discussions of new park in Mexico Economic Recession Rapid development in technology Natural Disasters, contagious diseases, terrorism Economic Recession Rapid development in technology Natural Disasters, contagious diseases, terrorism 2014 Annual Report; Bloomberg; El Financiero
Key Risks Annual Report Cyber Security Risks Risks of Accidents Not Adequate Insurance Coverage Intellectual Property must be protected Economic Conditions Affect Third Party Contracts Other Leisure Alternatives
Macroeconomics Conditions 9 Spending and Adolescents within the United States Domestic and International Inbound Trips into the United States IBIS
Industry Review 10 Barriers to Entry Threat of Substitutes Bargaining Power of Suppliers Bargaining Power of Buyers Competitive Rivalry Porter’s Five Forces IBIS
Recent Stock Performance 11 Six Flags is currently trading above the 20 day and 200 day moving average Yahoo! Finance
Recent Stock Performance 12 Out of its competitors, Six Flags is trading above Yahoo! Finance
Financial Analysis & K
Financial Analysis & K
DuPont Analysis & K
Comparable Company Analysis 16 SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:SEAS) Operates as a theme park and entertainment company in the U.S. Features marine-life theme parks in Orlando, San Antonio, and San Diego Owns Busch Garden theme parks and other various theme parks across the U.S. Cedar Fair, L.P. (NYSE:FUN) Owns and operates amusement and water parks, as well as hotels in the U.S. and Canada Operates 11 amusement parks, 3 outdoor water parks, and 5 hotels Notable parks include Kings Dominion in Richmond and Cedar Point on Lake Erie Merlin Entertainments plc (LSE:MERL) Operates visitor attractions worldwide Attractions include LEGOLAND, SEA LIFE, and the Dungeons Headquartered in Poole, U.K. Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) Operates and manages theme parks and hotels in Japan Parks include Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea Headquartered in Japan Cap IQ
Greenblatt Ratios 17 Cap IQ
Comparable Company Analysis 18 We used P/E, P/Forward EPS, and P/Sales Median multiples were selected and applied against SIX’s financial data We equally weighted each of these multiples for a valuation of $40.35 Bloomberg; Cap IQ
Revenue Projection & K
WACC Calculation 20 Bloomberg Risk Free Rate: US 10-Year Treasury Note Adjusted Cost of Equity: 80% of CAPM Cost of Equity + 20% of Realized Return for past 2 years Cost of Debt: From the projected debt schedule Risk Free Rate: US 10-Year Treasury Note Adjusted Cost of Equity: 80% of CAPM Cost of Equity + 20% of Realized Return for past 2 years Cost of Debt: From the projected debt schedule
Discounted Cash Flow & K
Recommendation 22 Positives: Dividend Yield is 4.42% & New Market Growth; Negatives: High and Volatile PE Ratio We recommend adding Six Flags to the Watch List