IENG 217 Cost Estimating for Engineers Estimating.

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Presentation transcript:

IENG 217 Cost Estimating for Engineers Estimating

Nature of the estimate Timeliness Purpose Accuracy Effort Accountability

Universal Methods Opinion Guesstimating, TLAR Conference Delphi, Sales Force Composite, Exec. Dec. Comparison C c (D c ) < C a (D a ) < C b (D b ) Unit

Comparison

Unit

Metal machining cost may be related to length of the bar stock that is turned on a lathe. Actual tickets yield

Unit Metal machining cost may be related to length of the bar stock that is turned on a lathe. Actual tickets yield C a = 110/9 = $12.22 / in.

Unit Cost Fails to apply principle of economy of scale Accounts for slope only Regression: C a = (length)

Operational Methods Cost estimating relationships Time estimating relationships Performance time data

Cost Estimating Relationships Parameters C a = (length) bar stock length ( 5 inches ) used in CER ( $76.70 ) is often called a parameter – it is not CER is actually a parametric equation

Cost Estimating Relationship

Typical arc welder draws 200 amps for a 20 volt arc welding process. If we have a 10 in/min welding travel speed and a 95% machine efficiency, estimate the cost per foot of a weld if the utility costs are $0.08 per KWhr.

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WWII military aircraft constructed of aluminum (regression; 10 contractors)

Performance Time Data Time Study Work Sampling

Performance Time Data Alg. 1. Collected several measurements from ops. 2. Classify elements into common group 3. Regress element time against one or more independent causal variables 4. Determine if TER is constant or variable 5. If TER is constant, determine value 6. If TER is variable, convert to time table or eq. 7. Collect all constant variable elements for operation 8. If accuracy is acceptable, use information for estimating designs

Constant or Variable ? 5 time measurements taken on a manual handling task Weight, lb Time, min Regression yields

Constant or Variable ? Test 1 Test 2

Constant or Variable ? 5 time measurements taken on a manual handling task (test 1, P 1 = 100%) Weight, lb Time, min y hat

Carriage / Support Assembly