China’s International Trade & Air Pollution in the U.S. Lin et al., 2014 Jessica Connolly M.S. Student Desert Research Institute 1

Outline 2 Introduction ↓ Background ↓ Other Studies ↓ Definitions/Importance ↓ Input-Output Model ↓ Data Sources/Uncertainties ↓ GEOS-Chem CTM ↓ Results ↓ Conclusions

Introduction 3

Air Pollution in China: Real-time Air Quality Index Visual Map 4 Wed, March 4, pm, am in China

Background 5 Transboundary air Pollution factors Species traits Transport Mechanisms Time of year Transformation during transport Deposition velocity, stability, lifetime & season Most rapid & frequent in Spring due to active cyclonic activity and strong Westerly winds Warm conveyor belts, convection, orographic lifting, Aleutian Low & North Pacific High PAN decomposition – dominant component of O 3 in transpacific Asian pollution plumes

Scientific Evidence 6 “Scientific Evidence of Transport of Chinese Air Pollution Across the Pacific Ocean has grown since the Late 1990’s” 2 ways to support transpacific air pollution is occurring: 1.Modeling 2.Scientific Monitoring

Mean simulated US surface O 3 enhancements from Asian anthropogenic emissions Model Analyses study Zhang et al Aircraft, satellite, sonde, surface observations GEOS-Chem INTEX-B campaign 5-7 ppbv increase in O 3 (due to NO x emissions) O 3 production by PAN/Asian lower troposphere 7

Chemistry Observations study Obrist et al goal → test if Asian long-range transport leads to enhanced levels of atmospheric mercury at Storm Peak Lab Gaseous Elemental Mercury (GEM) long residence time → transported globally, becoming an international pollution issue GEM enhancements, 10-day HYSPLIT air mass trajectories & increased levels of coarse aerosols (3–4 mm) indicated the presence of Asian air masses at the lab 8

Definitions Emissions embodied in export – pollutants emitted in China due to its production of goods for foreign consumption EEE Emissions in other countries due to production of goods for Chinese consumption EEI EEE less EEI – emissions embodied in net trade of China EET 9

Objective/Importance To analyze the impacts of trade-related Chinese emissions globally by linking economic-emission analysis and atmospheric chemical transport modeling 10

Input-Output Model 11 Captures indirect environmental impacts caused by upstream production Commonly used for analyzing trade-induced emissions of carbon dioxide Emission intensity = average emission rate of a given pollutant from a given source relative to the intensity of an activity

Data Sources/Uncertainties Chinese National Bureau of Statistics Economy Data Chinese Energy Statistical Yearbook China Iron and Steel Statistics & China Cement Almanac China Vehicle Emission Control Annual Report & Various Literature Activity Rates – mobile/industrial/transportation sources IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories Various Literature Emission Factors 12

GEOS-Chem CTM Global 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) Full O x -NO x -CO-VOC-HO X chemistry & online calculation for various aerosols Inputs: natural emissions → various literature, global & Asian anthropogenic emissions → INTEX-B Meteorological input from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation OfficeNASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office 13

Results 21% attributed to China-US export of goods 3-10% of annual mean surface sulfate conc’s over W US % O 3 over US 14

Maximum contribution of EEE-related Chinese air pollution to daily mean surface air pollutant concentrations over the US in

16 Chinese pollution resulted in days of noncompliance with the US O 3 std. in 2006 over LA and eastern US

Simulated percentage contribution of surface air pollution from Chinese EEE 17

Simulated effects of China producing goods just for US consumption 18 Reduction in US emissions due to outsourcing to China

Conclusions Rising emissions in China – key reason emissions remain high even as emissions in the US decrease US emissions would be 6-19% higher in 2006 if emissions reallocated to where goods are consumed Advantageous for the Eastern US due to much higher population density China could reduce emissions significantly if they were to enhance energy efficiency and deploy control technologies as effective as those in the US International agreements needed Cooperation between countries: who is responsible? 19

References Zhang et al., Transpacific transport of ozone pollution and the effect of recent Asian emission increases on air quality in North America: an integrated analysis using satellite, aircraft, ozonesonde, and surface observations Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8 (2008) 6117–6136 Franco DiGiovanni and Philip Fellin, (2006), Transboundary Air Pollution, in Environmental Monitoring, [Eds.Hilary I. Inyang, John L. Daniels], in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford,UK, [ Obrist D. et al., Atmospheric mercury concentrations at Storm Peak Laboratory in the Rocky Mountains: Evidence for long-range transport from Asia, boundary layer contributions, and plant mercury uptake, Atmopsheric Environment, 42 (2008) Liang, Q., et al., Summertime influence of Asian pollution in the free troposphere over North America, submitted to J. Geophys. Res., Liang, Q., L. Jaegle, and J. M. Wallace, Meteorological indices for Asian outflow and transpacific transport on daily to interannual timescales, J. Geophys. Res., 110(D18), D18308, doi: /2005JD005788, Liang, Q., L. Jaegle, D. A. Jaffe, P. Weiss, A. McClintick, and J. Snow, Long-range transport of Asian pollution to the Northeast Pacific: Seasonal variations and transport pathways o f carbon monoxide, J. Geophys. Res., 109(D23), D23S07, doi: /2003JD004402,

Questions/Discussion 21 What do you think?