AQUAINT Scenario Breakout -- Group 2, Team 6 12 June 2002

AQUAINT QE Task l Forms? (top down) l SAMs? Stingers? Manportables? — Can they be brought in? — Procured in the US? –Stolen? –Vulnerabilities? — Built in the US? –Parts? Dates? (bottom up) l How many Ops remain in America, and what forms of terror do they have in mind?

AQUAINT Results l Questions that would be answered by returning evidence here l Further questions generated by given evidence, like obsolete manports l What are their capabilities? l Major task l Create coherent picture from evidence — Is this more NIMD?

AQUAINT KB posed QA l Given the data here l Can we conclude an answer to the question about Al-Qeada? l Subtask l Can system — Create all the chronologies from the given data? — Formation further questions about interconnections between people involved? — Visualize relationship between connected people? l What do you know about capabilities of the stolen manpads? l People lose track? — Who was this person already? — This is where a system could help. l (L. Quirk) — “Arnold C” in 12 is the same as “Arnold H” in 7

AQUAINT Needs l Need tool to: l Visualize l Justify l Explain l (Many of our contractors have recognized this.) l Note: l Need to filter explanation for: — Relevance — Common sense — Etc…

AQUAINT Needs l Can Q & A help recognize that a single event was the source of apparently disparate reports? (Role of probabilities) l Evaluation problem acc of 70% is reported l Where (when) are these critical 30% missed? l Importance of transparency of system to analyst? l Analyst may accept erroneous data all the time l Contingency planning

AQUAINT Major Hypotheses l What are the elements that support it? l What does a Q & A system do? l What kind of data transactions? What kind of data would you like to have? l Travel reports? l Credit cards? l Various analysts may have the same global task but the sources may lead to different questions.

AQUAINT Goals l In 7-10 years, how can AQUAINT tools help? l Complete — Timelines? — Relationships? — Connections? l Can these visualizations lead to further questions like: l Profile of person A? l Capabilities of item X? — Manpads can shoot airliners. What else can they shoot? l Assist in developing & culling additional evidence l Could reason effectively with known evidence l Identify — Missing data — Further data (of Jerry’s dialogue)

AQUAINT Goals l Assist in developing & culling additional evidence l Could reason effectively with known evidence l Identify — Missing data — Further data (of Jerry’s dialogue) — e.g. –Capabilities of stolen weapons? –What other pieces of equipment could lead to more damaging capabilities? –Further info this US org »Where live? »Criminal record? »Other people involved? »Past transactions, communications? »Other interpretations (6 members interpreted as date)? l Danger: Likely hypotheses that are not logical or common sense.

AQUAINT Comments l Need to look at patterns l Over time l Machines help where it would take too long to humans. l Bringing back 40K answers is no help. l DM could help. l Short term l The user has to learn to use the tool. l Longer term l Sophistication of system implies a more “natural” tool.

AQUAINT Conclusion l 7-10 Years l Ability to: — Say, “Here is the data” — Come up with hypotheses — Find additional evidence