Title card A Look at Environments Associated with Nighttime Supercell Tornadoes in the Central Plains Meteorologist Jon Davies Private © Dick McGowan &

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Presentation transcript:

Title card A Look at Environments Associated with Nighttime Supercell Tornadoes in the Central Plains Meteorologist Jon Davies Private © Dick McGowan & Darin Brunin

Processes Basic parameters that suggest potential for strong tornadic supercell storms: CAPE – buoyancy/instability for thunderstorm updrafts SRH (storm-relative helicity) – change in wind direction and increase in wind speed not far above ground as a source of “spin” or rotation in low-levels Deep layer shear – increasing winds with height through a deep layer to organize and strengthen updrafts CAPE in low-levels near the ground (0-3 km CAPE) and low cloud bases (LCL heights) for storms that are strongly surface-based without excessive cold outflow

If air bubbles near ground don’t have to be lifted very far to become buoyant and rise on their own, developing low-level circulations can stretch and spin faster Low-level CAPE and a strongly surface-based environment probably help with stretching at the ground. stretching at ground

If air bubbles near ground are too cool, it’s like the updraft has to lift bricks instead of ping-pong balls near the ground Cool, stable air in low-levels tends to reduce stretching at the ground, though there may be CAPE further above. stretching aloft Layer of cool, stable air

Stats noon 6 pm mid 6 am noon 6 pm mid 6 am North Dakota tornadoes Mississippi tornadoes Tornadoes by time of day (from Grazulis )

MLCAPE 2050 J/kg 0-1k SRH 143 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 58 kts MLLCL 1200 m MLCIN –55 J/kg 2 2 weak inversion RUC analysis

MLCAPE 2165 J/kg 0-1k SRH 357 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 55 kts MLLCL 500 m MLCIN –150 J/kg 2 2 strong inversion only 2 hours later! Tornado warned supercell near Dodge City after dark, no tornadoes surface cooling RUC analysis

MLCAPE 960 J/kg 0-1k SRH 370 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 52 kts MLLCL 700 m MLCIN –15 J/kg 2 2 little or no inversion Nighttime killer tornado at Evansville IN 22 dead middle of the night! RUC analysis

Key characteristics – plains vs. eastern U.S. A key difference between environments in the Great Plains and areas farther east (Gulf Coast-Ohio Valley) that impacts the occurrence of nighttime tornadoes: An elevated mixed layer from the dry desert southwest is often present in the plains. Cooling at nightfall beneath this layer can rapidly change a strongly surface-based environment to one that is more elevated and not really surface-based, reducing the chance of nighttime tornadoes. In the eastern U. S., the absence of this elevated mixed layer when strong low-level moist advection is taking place often makes for a better chance of tornadoes at night.

A typical nighttime evolution of parameters in the plains… Typical nighttime evolution of parameters in the plains…

SRH 0-1 km SRH NAM/WRF model

0-1 km SRH Low-level shear increases with nocturnal backing of winds and the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet NAM/WRF model

0-1 km SRH Low-level shear increases with nocturnal backing of winds and the nocturnal increase in the low-level jet NAM/WRF model

EHI 0-1 km EHI NAM/WRF model

0-1 km EHI The resulting rise in SRH increases nighttime CAPE-shear combinations NAM/WRF model

0-1 km EHI The resulting rise in SRH increases nighttime CAPE-shear combinations NAM/WRF model

Low-level CAPE 0-3 km CAPE NAM/WRF model

0-3 km CAPE BUT… nocturnal cooling decreases low-level CAPE, causing nighttime environments to become increasingly “elevated” NAM/WRF model

0-3 km CAPE BUT… nocturnal cooling decreases low-level CAPE, causing nighttime environments to become increasingly “elevated” NAM/WRF model

Characteristics to watch for… Nighttime situations to watch for in the Central Plains are those where the elevated mixed layer and accompanying inversion are not particularly strong, and where strong warm-moist advection is taking place to reduce the impact of nighttime cooling.

Model forecast characteristics that can help with assessing nighttime environments more conducive to tornadoes after dark in the Central Plains: Strong CAPE-shear combinations at night The presence of significant low-level CAPE (CAPE below 3 km) at night, suggesting strong warm-moist advection and a more surface-based environment

Some case studies… Case studies…

28 Feb 2007 KS-MO tornadic supercell 28 February 2007

Tornadic supercell east-central Kansas 7:30-8:00 p.m. CST (in late February!)

© Andy Fischer © courtesy KMBC-TV EF-4 tornado after dark in Linn County, KS 2/28/07

Tornadoes continued into Missouri after 10 p.m. CST

0245 UTC

MLCAPE 870 J/kg 0-1k SRH 460 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 56 kts MLLCL 930 m MLCIN –55 J/kg 2 2 weak inversion RUC analysis

MLCAPE 620 J/kg 0-1k SRH 280 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 53 kts MLLCL 1050 m MLCIN –30 J/kg 2 2 little or no inversion WRF 3 hr forecast for CNU valid 03 UTC

17 April 2004 N Iowa nontornadic supercells 17 April 2004

Poor low-level CAPE indicated

Strong supercells after dark in northern Iowa

Isolated wind damage, but no tornadoes

0245 UTC

MLCAPE 1030 J/kg 0-1k SRH 480 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 60 kts MLLCL 970 m MLCIN –210 J/kg 2 2 strong inversion RUC analysis

4 May 2007 Greensburg tornado 4 May 2007 Greensburg event

0145 UTC

© Dick McGowan & Darin Brunin © Courtesy Wichita Eagle EF-5 tornado strikes Greensburg KS before 10 p.m. CDT 5/4/07

Tornadoes continued in central Kansas well after midnight!

MLCAPE 1600 J/kg 0-1k SRH 205 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 46 kts MLLCL 1640 m MLCIN –190 J/kg 2 2 strong inversion RUC analysis Erroneous moisture! (too dry in low-levels)

MLCAPE 3800 J/kg 0-1k SRH 240 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 47 kts MLLCL 710 m MLCIN –10 J/kg 2 2 weak inversion WRF 3 hr forecast for PTT valid 03 UTC Much better depiction of low-level moisture!

MLCAPE 3800 J/kg 0-1k SRH 240 m /s 0-1k EHI k shear 47 kts MLLCL 710 m MLCIN –10 J/kg 2 2 WRF 3 hr forecast for PTT valid 03 UTC Much better depiction of low-level moisture! hodograph

Greensburg KS (EF-5) Moore OK (F5) from Johns & Davies 1993

Quick review of the cases we just looked at… Review

28 Feb 2007

significant tornadoes well after dark (significant low-level CAPE)

17 April 2004

no tornadoes after dark (no low-level CAPE – elevated storms) 17 April 2004

4 May 2007

strong-violent tornadoes well into the night (plentiful low-level CAPE)

Summary Regarding potential for strong or violent tornadoes after dark, on forecast models such as the WRF, watch for: Strong CAPE-shear combinations after dark Significant low-level CAPE continuing after dark

RUC caveats Beware the RUC! It is often too dry in low-levels with strong moisture advection situations such as: Retreating (westward moving) drylines Advancing warm fronts The WRF seems to handle these situations better.

Close © Jon Davies My site (Greensburg tornado case study): Earl Barker’s site:

© Jon Davies My site (Greensburg tornado case study): Earl Barker’s site: I’ve moved! Jon Davies 9101 Alpha Ridge Rd. Trimble MO (north of Kansas City) remains for now:

Book

F-4

Available from (search on “Jon Davies”) and

Close © Jon Davies My site (Greensburg tornado case study): Earl Barker’s site: New address: Jon Davies 9101 Alpha Ridge Rd. Trimble MO (north of Kansas City) remains for now: