Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Update Kyle L. Olsen COSCAP-South East Asia, Macau October, 2008

* Representing P&W and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** EASA IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

HUMAN FACTORS IN OPERATIONS & MAINTENANCE Carry-on Baggage Child Restraint Passenger Interference CABIN SAFETY IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS GENERAL AVIATION Loss of Control Weather Survivability Aeronautical Decisionmaking Controlled Flight Into Terrain Approach and Landing COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight Into Terrain Loss of Control Weather Uncontained Engine Failures Runway Incursion Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursions Safer Skies Turbulence

Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented (), Accident Risk Reduction = General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention 

CAST Implementation Status

Safety Enhancements 47 Complete 23 Underway 2020 Plan Risk Reduction Estimate 74 % CHANGES from last meeting 2 SEs completed SE129, SE30

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.1 Europe 0.7 China 0.3 Middle East 2.3 Africa 10.0 Asia 2.1 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) C.I.S. 1 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.1

Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1998 through 2007 Accidents per million departures United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.1 Europe 0.7 China 0.3 Middle East 2.3 Africa 10.0 Asia 2.1 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) C.I.S. 1 CAST 70 SEs 47 complete 23 in work 74% reduction PAAST CFIT and ALAR ESSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction ASET COSCAP CIS COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 40 SEs in work 60% reduction 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. World 1.1 COSCAP Gulf COSCAP BAG

Moving Forward

Safety Plan Development Accident JSATS Case studies Accident JSITS Case studies Safety Enhancements Incident Analysis Process JIMDAT Review Emerging Risk Changing Risk Develop Enhancements & Metrics Aviation System Changes Present In Master Factors Yes No Demographic Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging Identify Hazards Identify Factors Master Contributing Factors CAST-051R FAST Hazards CAST Plan Recommended Plan Revision Performance To Plan Review Non- Performance Information Metrics

12 7 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only 7 August 2008 Aviation Safety Information Analysis Sharing ASIAS Activities Summary to the CAST Aviation Safety Information Analysis Sharing ASIAS Activities Summary to the CAST

13 7 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only Signed MOUs

14 7 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only Regional Airlines Outreach

15 7 August 2008 Distribution limited to CAST only 15 ASIAS Architecture: Where We Are DNAA DNFA Enhanced Data Management Tools Expanded Analytical Tools FAA ASIAS Data MITRE CRS Data Fused Results ASDE-X New Airlines Data Fusion National Offload Program ASDE-X Airports ATL-BDL-CLT-FLL-HOU IAD-LAX-MCO-MKE-ORD PVD-SDF-SEA-STL

Thank you