WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP) Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events IHP Paris, France, UNESCO headquarters 27-29.

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Presentation transcript:

WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP) Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events IHP Paris, France, UNESCO headquarters September 2010

In response to:  The IPCC WGI and WG-II Special Report on “Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation” (Scoping meeting in Oslo, March 2009).  US-CIVAR USGCRP report on extremes “Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate” (Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands)  “Guidelines on Analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation” by the joint CCI/ /CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI))  International Hydrological Programme (IHP) of UNESCO activities overlooking and aiming at water resource management and capacity building  Up to 10 recent and planned topical Workshops and seminars around the World on extreme climate events

Problem areas and challenges Why gaps in understanding still exist?  Insufficient quality and sampling of observational data  Inadequate resolution of model simulations  The same methods applied to the data of different resolutions require different approaches Advanced statistical methodologies for estimation of extremes themselves have not yet been exploited to the full extent  Spatial aspects of extremes and existing trouble in overcoming "scaling" problems  “Compound events”: unclear what kinds of pre-conditions lead to extreme outcomes We will not be able to fully understand what metrics and methodologies we should develop unless we understand the physical processes of the extremes

Workshop focus: phenomenology and methodological aspects of the quantitative estimation of different climate extremes under observed and future climate conditions using observational and model data Workshop aim: to facilitate an open dialogue of climatologists from different areas, data producers, statisticians and users on the future strategy for the development of robust and reliable characteristics of extremes and optimal methodologies for their estimation

Impacts of extremes: summer 2010 H500 height – Polland, SE Germany, Czech Rep.Central Russia Pakistan

BOGs Sessions Data requirements and availability, including data policy Representation of extremes in models, including scaling and space-time scales Methodologies for estimation of extremes across areas and disciplines Hydrological extremes, including compound hydroclimate extremes Extremes in temperature conditions, heat waves and dry spells Extreme tropical and extratropical cyclones, wind waves and storm surges Methodologies for estimation extremes Risk assessment Workshop structure + 2 discussions & briefing session

Welcome to the Workshop