Money in state politics Ronald Campbell The Orange County Register

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Presentation transcript:

Money in state politics Ronald Campbell The Orange County Register

The legal background States set their own limits – or none at all – for elections. These limits can be many times the limit for federal candidates. –In California, $24,000 max to governor, $3,600 to legislators Buckley v. Valeo: No limit on donations to causes. So initiatives are free-for-alls.

Big money, part 1 Not all the big money goes to Washington $871 million for U.S. House races $453 million for U.S. Senate races $700 million for state contests in California $142 million for a single CA initiative – nearly equal to top three Senate races combined

Initiatives: The Wild West Nothing similar in federal system Often used to bypass legislature No compromises! Advocates get exactly what they want. Bribery is legal. Sort of. Playground for wealthy interests

Big money, part 2 Initiatives attract far more money than do candidate elections –California 2006: $124 million for governor’s race and $327 million for initiatives –Arizona 2006: $3.7 million for governor’s race and $32.5 million for initiatives –Colorado 2006: $8.1 million for governor’s race and $16.5 million for initiatives

Why give to state races? Big issues (health care, alternative energy, gay marriage) can be resolved by states long before Congress acts. Big money has an outsized impact in state races. Most regulated businesses are regulated by states – not the federal government. And these businesses give money.

From the sublime … “Battle of the ankle” – podiatrists and orthopedists in several states have battled for exclusive rights to this joint. Legislators are the (paid) referees. Roads, public works and other “juice”.

Tracing the money Followthemoney.org – documents campaign spending in most states Cal-Access, the official site for state campaign reports in California. A handful of local sites such as LA City Ethics Commission

Who are the big donors? They’re hard to find. You know the top local politician. Do you know the top local donor? The top local pol does. Top donors have a big impact on public policy. The public needs to know who they are. And they may care passionately about state and federal politics.

Marrying data Federal Elections Commission Internal Revenue Service (527 committees) State agency (usually Secretary of State That’s three databases, each subtly different from the others. And that’s three different filing deadlines.

What’s in a name? Names show up many different formats –Bing, Stephen L. –Bing, Steve –Stephen L. Bing –BingStephen And with different spellings –A.G. Spanos –Alex Spanos –Alexander G. Spanos

Version 1: FEC

Version 2: IRS

Version 3: CA SOS

Spouses and businesses Many big donors split donations between husband and wife. So you have to link them. –Property records –Society pages Many big donors own their businesses and give through them – so you have to know their businesses too.

Avoiding false positives Look for something besides similar names to tie variant spellings together. Same spouse (usually) Zip codes Business and occupation Business names and addresses.

Use an alias table Once you’re sure you know the variations on a donor’s name, let a computer match donations for you. Two-field table: standard name and variation. Join alias table to your data, then group by standard name to add all the donations.

My alias table

California’s biggest donors Top 100 donors gave $150 million in They bankrolled stem-cell initiative – a $3 billion bet by a nearly bankrupt state. They forced Legislature to reverse itself on workers comp, financial privacy bills. They kept the 2004 presidential race close.