1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 31,

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Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 31, 2011 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over southeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Deficits seen earlier over parts of southeast Asia are slowly disappearing.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is considerably below normal over much of the Indian subcontinent particularly over the central and northeastern India. Such deficit areas have disappeared over southern China and much of southeast Asia and are even replaced by above sporadic normal patterns.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days The normal onset date of Northeast(NE) monsoon (October to December) over southeast India is October 20 plus or minus a week period. This period, in south India, is sometimes also referred to as the “Post Monsoon season”. This year, according to the Regional Meteorological Center, Chennai, which is part of the India Meteorological Dept.(IMD), the NE monsoon set in over TamilNadu, Kerala, and the adjoining states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh on October 29 th, 2011, thus bringing in even some flooding conditions along some coastal regions of TamilNadu.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes Note: This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. The time series of precipitation over the various regions is relatively consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7 Atmospheric Circulation The low level circulation (not updated since 28 October due to technical difficulties in updating CDAS at NCEP) is getting ready transitioning to the onset of NE monsoon over southern India, which occurred on October 29 th according to the Regional Met. Center.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Summary Over the last 90 days, rainfall deficit is seen over southeastern India, southern and southwestern China. Deficits seen earlier over parts of southeast Asia are slowly disappearing. The overall 30-day precipitation pattern is considerably below normal over much of the Indian subcontinent particularly over the central and northeastern India. Such deficit areas have disappeared over southern China and much of southeast Asia and are even replaced by above sporadic normal patterns. The normal onset date of Northeast(NE) monsoon (October to December) over southeast India is October 20 plus or minus a week. This three month period, in south India, is sometimes also referred to as the “Post Monsoon season”. This year, according to the Regional Meteorological Center, Chennai, which is part of the India Meteorological Dept.(IMD), the NE monsoon set in over TamilNadu, Kerala, and the adjoining states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh on October 29 th, 2011, thus bringing in even some flooding conditions along some coastal regions of TamilNadu. The NCEP GFS model is predicting below normal rainfall over much of southeast Asia, except over south India and maritime Indonesia in the upcoming week, followed by below normal rainfall over much of the large monsoon region in the second week.

10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12 Climatology