SFEI LOOKING BACK : LOOKING FORWARD The RMP has always been composed of a diverse (odd ?) set of individuals

SCIENTISTS

ENGINEERS

INDUSTRY

ENVIRONMENTALISTS

SUMMARY FIRST RMP ANNUAL MEETING “IT’S BEEN A LOVE FEST” (Steve Ritchey: SF RWQCB)

15 YEARS LATER SF BAY : NATIONAL MODEL (Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., Environmental Science & Technology)

THE PROBLEM - ELSEWHERE Literature Survey metals in US estuaries Results only 83 published articles no data ~ 1/2 US estuaries Only long term metal studies SF Bay Most studies in other estuaries being done by RMP alumni Sañudo-Wilhelmy et al., 2004

RMP ALUMNI * CONDUCTING ESTUARINE STUDIES ELSEWHERE East Coast: Sergio Sañudo *Stony Brook Mark WellsMaine Greg Cutter *ODU John DonatODU Gulf Coast: Gary Gill *Texas A&M Bill LandingFlorida State Far East Coast: Kuria Ndung’u *Sweden * still involved in SF Bay-Delta studies * incomplete listing

RMP ALUMNI * REGULATING ESTUARINE STUDIES Priya GanguliSF RWQCB Peter KozelkaUS EPA Jon PhinneyNOAA Ignacio RiveraUS Navy Doug StedingSupreme Court* * incomplete listing * circa 2010

THE PROBLEM IN SF BAY 150 YEARS OF POLLUTION 15 YEARS OF RMP DATA* Gold Rush Mercury Mines Golden Gate Red Lead Silver Estuary Industrial Discharges Urban Estuary Periodic Table * prenascent RMP data collection began in 1989

MERCURY IN SF BAY SFEI Summary Time Series Data

OTHER PROBLEMS WITH SF BAY Physical Complexity Hydrologic Complexity

RMP DATA QUANTIFY TEMPORAL CHANGES Ag & Pb in the South Bay ( ) Dissolved Ag: 40% decline Dissolved Pb: no decline Total Ag: 70% decline Total Pb: 40% decline Squire et al., ES&T

RMP DATA ENABLE PROJECTIONS Cooke et al., URS & Monismith et al., Stanford Schubel et al., 2003

RMP DATA MODEL LIMITATIONS Small data set Limited spatial coverage Assumptions of constancy in an inconstant world Flegal et al., 1991 It is safer to interpolate than extrapolate It is safer to interpolate than extrapolate

RMP DATA FOSTER COLLABORATIONS & INNOVATIONS MEANINGFUL WATER QUALITY CRITERIA

EMERGING CONCERNS Population growth water demands contaminant inputs Urbanization surface runoff Negative sediment budget contaminant re-exposure Global warming reduced fresh water flows reduced sediment flows Sewall and Sloan, 2004, JGR

SUMMARY 15 YEARS OF RMP “IT’S STILL GROOVY” Russ Flegal, Aging Hippie

“TOTAL DISSOLVED” : “FREE” COPPER