Towards a Sustainable Energy Future The Global Energy Landscape The Problem of Energy –Diminishing supply? –Resources in unfriendly locations? –Environmental damage? The Solution –Adequate domestic supply –Environmentally benign –Conveniently transported –Conveniently used

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future World Energy Consumption 2005 totals: 490 Q-Btu, 515 EJ, 16TW 2030 projections:720 Q-Btu, 760 EJ, 24TW 86% fossil 81% Source: US Energy Information Administration 260,000,000,000 60W bulbs continuously

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future World Energy Consumption Source: US Energy Information Agency (annual) Exa Joules (10 18 ) Equivalent Power (TW, ) How good is the EIA at making projections?? Coal, actual

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Fossil Fuel Supplies Rsv = Reserves (90%) Rsc = Resources (50%) Source Reserves, yrsResources, yrsTotal, yrs Oil – Gas – Coal  400 yrs Source: US Energy Information Administration

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Reserves History for American Coal Coal Commission (based on surveys by Marius Campbell of the USGS) 4,045 years Paul Averitt (USGS) 2,136 years 1,433 years Bureau of Mines/EIA (based on Paul Averitt’s surveys) 368 years 270 years236 years Courtesy: David Rutledge “Hubbert Peak” type of analysis suggests 90% depletion by 2076

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future US Energy Imports/Exports: : Net Importer 65% of known petroleum reserves in Middle East 3% of reserves in USA, but 25% of world consumption Total Coal Petroleum Total Petroleum Net ImportsExports Source: US Energy Information Administration Quad BTU Quad BTU

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Environmental Outlook Global CO 2 levels Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2009: 385 ppm Projections: ppm by 2020 Anthropogenic –Fossil fuel (75%) –Land use (25%) Industrial Revolution

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Environmental Outlook Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001; N. Oreskes, Science 306, 1686, 2004; D. A. Stainforth et al, Nature 433, 403, Thousands of years before present (Ky BP) 0  T relative to present (°C) CH 4 (ppmv) -- CO 2 -- CH 4 --  T CO 2 (ppmv) CO 2 in 2008: 385ppmv

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Future Scenarios Most optimitistic scenarioCenturies for CO 2 to decay Courtesy: John Seinfeld

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Future Scenarios Highly optimitistic scenario: stabilize at 380 ppm (aerosols) Courtesy: John Seinfeld

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future Energy Outlook Supply Uncertainty in assessing High geopolitical risk Rising costs Environmental Impact Target, by 2050 –Stabilize CO 2 at 550 ppm Requires –20 TW carbon-free power –One 1-GW power plant daily from now until then Urgency Transport of CO 2 or heat into deep oceans: – years; CO 2 build-up is cummulative Must make dramatic changes within next few years

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future The Energy Solution Solar 1.2 x 10 5 TW at Earth surface 600 TW practical Biomass 5-7 TW gross all cultivatable land not used for food Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind 2-4 TW extractable 4.6 TW gross 1.6 TW technically feasible 0.9 TW economically feasible 0.6 TW installed capacity 12 TW gross over land small fraction recoverable Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross The need: ~ 20 TW by 2050 Fossil with sequestration 1% / yr leakage -> lost in 100 yrs Nuclear Waste disposal 60 yr uranium supply Courtesy: Nate Lewis

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future A Sustainable Energy Cycle Solar power plant H2OH2O H2H2 e-e- Batteries Capture Storage Delivery Utilization Hydrides? Liquid H 2 ? C-free Source Hydrocarbon ??? Fuel cell e-e- H 2 O, CO 2 + CO 2

Towards a Sustainable Energy Future A Sustainable Energy Cycle Solar power plant H2OH2O H2H2 e-e- Batteries Capture Storage Delivery Utilization Hydrides? Liquid H 2 ? C-free Source Hydrocarbon ??? Fuel cell e-e- H 2 O, CO 2 + CO 2