1 Overview Community Health Modeling Working Group Meeting Tony Servin, P.E. Modeling Support Section Planning and Technical Support Division May 6, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency EJVOverview_ ppt

2 Overview of the Day Overview of the Neighborhood Assessment Program and Cumulative Assessment Technical issues to be studied with the Wilmington Protocol Regional modeling results for Southern California Method to assess cumulative impacts at a neighborhood scale anywhere in the state Open discussion Your feedback

3 Policies & Actions

4 Environmental Justice Policies and Actions Adopted by the California Air Resources Board, December 2001 Policy V “It shall be the ARB’s policy to assess, consider, and reduce cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risks when developing and implementing our programs”

5 Environmental Justice Specific Actions Regional maps showing estimated cancer health risks (e.g., ASPEN) Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (e.g., CHAPIS) Develop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level. (New Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps)

6 Investigative Work

7 Statewide Modeling Protocol Wilmington Modeling Protocol NAP Modeling Approach Cumulative Risk Assessment Tool Emissions and Meteorology Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Updated NAP Modeling Protocol Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Model Evaluation Component Proposed Product Independent Scientific Peer Review

8 Plan Conduct refined air quality modeling simulations of toxic emissions for cumulative sources –Microscale (Neighborhood scale) Distances –Regional Distances Bridge these actions to an approach feasible for any location in the State

9 Neighborhood Assessment Program Approach Legend Current Modeling Protocol Component of Modeling Proposed Product Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale (Neighborhood) Modeling Emissions and Meteorology

10 Pilot Studies Microscale - Estimate neighborhood cumulative air pollutant risk for two case studies –Barrio Logan –Wilmington Regional - Estimate regional air toxic risk for Southern California

11 Emissions and Meteorology Status Emission Inventory Development –Regional (Southern California only) –Microscale (Barrio Logan) –Microscale (Wilmington under development) Meteorological Development –Regional (Southern California only) –Microscale (Barrio Logan) –Microscale (Wilmington under development) Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology

12 Microscale Modeling Barrio Logan - Pilot Study Enhanced Emission Inventory Evaluating Performance of Four Microscale Dispersion Models Obtained Preliminary Model Results (50 m resolution) Conducting Model Evaluation (Toxics & Tracer Monitoring) Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology

13 Microscale Modeling Wilmington - Pilot Study Identified in MATES-II Freeways, Refineries, Port, Local Traffic, Manufacturing, Local Facilities Under Development Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology (source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12) Wilmington

14 Regional Modeling Southern California - Pilot Study SCOS domain (4 km grid resolution) Larger than MATES II Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology San Diego Riverside Los Angeles San Bernardino Ventura Orange Mexico

15 Integrated Results Microscale Impacts + _Regional Impacts Total Impacts Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology Careful to understand double counting of emissions

16 Risk Assessment Preliminary Results - Barrio Logan Microscale only All toxics Inhalation only Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology

17 Risk Assessment (cont.) Preliminary Barrio Logan Findings Diesel PM is major contributor to inhalation risk (DPM non-measurable) Facility risk similar to HRA risk Microscale model generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Microscale Modeling Emissions and Meteorology

18 Verification of Model Results

19 Model Performance Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

20 Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation –Iterative process Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis –Begin with most sensitive pollutants to risk (e.g., diesel PM and gasoline stations) Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

21 Tracer Studies Needed to establish Microscale model performance Logan Memorial (Winter & Summer) –Preliminary Results –Contractor analyzing data Wilmington under development Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

22 Toxic Monitoring Logan Memorial Ambient –17 months (Oct Feb. 2001) Barrio Logan Intensive –Special study (Five sites) –Two weeks of data (Dec./Jan. 2001/2002) –Data being analyzed Wilmington Ambient –13 months (May July 2002) Wilmington Intensive –Planning stages Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

23 Regional Model Performance Evaluation Procedures well established for episodic hourly concentrations of O 3 No established metric for 24-hr or annual average concentrations of toxics Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

24 External Review Working Group Evaluations –55 participants on mailing list –Govt. (District, US-EPA, OEHHA) –Independent Scientists –Environmental Groups –Industry Representatives –Last meeting Sept. 12, 2002 Independent Scientific Peer Review Group for Barrio Logan Protocol –Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA –Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis –Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc. –Dr. Akula Venkatram, UC Riverside Model Evaluation Inventory Data Evaluation Sensitivity Studies Uncertainty Analysis Tracer Studies Toxics Monitoring Regional Modeling Evaluation Work Group Evaluation Input Data Requirements Model Strengths and Limitations Independent Scientific Peer Review

25 Continue to Technical Issues Investigated in Wilmington Study