Washington D.C. September 10, 2004 Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand Thailand Power Development Plan (PDP2004, )

Thailand Power Sector MEA, PEA (Distribution) NEPC (Chaired by Prime Minister) Customer Private Co. IPP, SPP PPA EGAT (Generation, Transmission) 2

THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING OBJECTIVES To generate and supply power to meet demand with good quality and high reliability To generate power at least cost To control the environmental and social effect at the lowest level 3

BASIC Procedure for Power Development Plan Study Load Forecast Criteria and Assumption PDPPDP

ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THAILAND ( FISCAL YEAR 2003 ) TOTAL 104,389 GWh Others 6,617 GWh 6.3% Small General Service 10,207 GWh 9.8% Residential 23,034 GWh 22.1% Medium General Service 19,667 GWh 18.8% Large General Service 41,655 GWh 39.9% Specific Business 3,209 GWh 3.1% 5

TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND Residential Small General Service Specific Business Government & Non-Profit Street Lighting Medium& Large General Service 59 % End-Use Approach Regression between Energy & GDP Bussiness Regression between Energy & GDP Hotel Regression between Energy & GDP Public Regression between Energy & Population Projected Energy Intensity GDP by Production Sub-Sector Load Forecast Principle Methodology % 3%3% 22 %

(Load Profile) Total Generation Requirement Demand 7

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50, MW Fiscal Year MEG (GDP 6%) TEG (GDP 7.5%) LEG (GDP 4%) Load Forecast January 2004 Jan,

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50, MW Fiscal Year MEG (GDP 6%) TEG (GDP 7.5%) LEG (GDP 4%) Load Forecast January 2004 Aug 02 (GDP 4.7%) Jan,

THAILAND POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNING CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS CRITERIA AND ASSUMPTIONS 2. Introduction of a 500 MW for peak cutting. 4. Power purchase from the neighbouring countries/ new capacity. 1. Minimum Reserve Margin  15%. 3. RPS 5% (630 MW). 12

EGAT Generation Requirement - Peak Cut 500 MW Unit : MW 13 * * * * * * *

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 PDP SPP 20.2 MW = 23 Units % 19.9% 13.7% 15.3%15.5%15.9% 14.3% 14.4%15.3%14.3% 14.6% 14.2% SPP MW RPS MW INSTALLED CAPACITY AND PEAK GENERATION IN INSTALLED CAPACITY DEPENDABLE CAPACITY Reserve Margin CAPACITY (MW) Krabi #1 340 MW, Lan Krabu 122 MW Lam Takong PS. #1-2 2x500 MW, SPP MW BLCP Power #1-2 2x MW GULF Power (Additional) 700 MW Song Khla CC 700 MW GULF Power 700 MW Ratchaburi Power #1-2 2x700 MW North Bangkok CC # MW South Bangkok CC # MW Purchases from Lao (Nam Thuen 2) 920 MW Bang Pakong CC # MW New Capacity 4x MW New Capacity 3x MW New Capacity 4x MW PEAK DEMAND FISCAL YEAR 14

GWh 15% 12% 11% 8% 9% 7% 74% 75% 76% 71% 14% 19% 26% 32% 13% FISCAL YEAR 10% 9% 8% 7% 72% 70% 66% 65% FORECAST OF ENERGY GENERATION BY TYPE OF FUELS 64% 60% 54% 49% 6%

Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (NT2, 920 MW) 16 * Install Capacity 25,705 MW (March 2004)

Sensitivity Study Load Forecast (Up to 2010) 1.MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW) Future Growth as MEG ( 7.1% Per Year) 2010 Load difference 418 MW 2. MEG Adjust 2004 : 19,326 MW (19,600 MW) Future Growth as 2004 ( 6.64% Per Year) 2010 Load difference 1,383 MW 17

Thailand Minimum Reserve Margin (Study Case) (NT2, 920 MW) 18

Sufficiency With Least Cost, No Brownout, No Rolling Blackout, No Blackout 24 Thailand Power Development Plan