Energy Issues and the Impacts on Freight Transportation Dr. Mark Rodekohr Energy Information Administration May 17, 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

Energy Issues and the Impacts on Freight Transportation Dr. Mark Rodekohr Energy Information Administration May 17, 2006

Presentation Organization Short-Term Fuel Price Outlook for Freight Fuels Longer Term Outlook for the Freight Sector

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval*) *The confidence intervals show +/- 2 standard errors based on the properties of the model.

U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices Forecast Cents per gallon

*Includes OPEC non-crude production, MMBD= million barrels per day Growth in World Consumption & Non-OPEC Production Demand growth exceeds non-OPEC supply growth Forecast

World Oil Surplus Production Capacity Forecast Million barrels per day

Major Events and World Oil Prices dollars per barrel

EIA Has Reassessed Its Long-Term Oil Price Projection Major oil producing countries pace investment more consistent with higher oil price path Investment impediments more persistent, even after several years of relatively higher oil prices Cost of doing business increasing Not due to “Peak Oil” considerations, although we are following this issue closely

World Oil Price, (2004 dollars per barrel) History Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006

U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, (million barrels per day) Industrial Transportation Residential and Commercial Electric Power Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2006

U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, (quadrillion Btu) Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Light-Duty Vehicles Rail Freight Trucks Water Air Bus

U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Energy Consumption, (quadrillion Btu) Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006 AEO2006 AEO2005

U.S. Heavy-Duty Travel, (billion miles) Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006 AEO2006 AEO2005

U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, (miles per gallon) Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006 AEO2006 AEO2005

U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sales, (thousands) Projections Histor y Annual Energy Outlook 2005 and 2006 AEO2006 AEO2005

U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Technology Penetration, (percent) Annual Energy Outlook 2006 Internal Friction Reduction Advanced Drag Reduction Advanced Fuel Injection

U.S. Transportation Fuel Use in Two Technology Cases (percent change from reference case) 2005 Technology High Technology Light-Duty Vehicles Freight Trucks Aircraft Light-Duty Vehicles Freight Trucks Aircraft Annual Energy Outlook 2006

World Transportation Sector Energy Use by Region, (quadrillion Btu) International Energy Outlook 2005

World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006 (billion barrels) Oil & Gas Journal, Vol. 103, No. 47 (December 19, 2005). World Total = 1,293 Billion Barrels