Public Opinion/The Media

For Next Time Liberal Source O’Connor and Sabato 15, 12 Enduring Debate Sections 41,42, #

The Ugly- Literary Digest Poll 1936 Election Over 1 Million Respondents Predicts Alf Landon Win Problem- Selecting Participants Problem- Low response rate Problem- Too far in advance of election

Polling and Democracy Verba- Allows voices to be heard that would not otherwise Allows greater detail on wishes of public than elections would. Dryzek- Empowers status quo Does not allow spontaneous expression of opinion

The Uses Of Polls The media Election Forecasting By the public By politicians To inform policy To inform policy To sell policy To sell policy By Interest groups

Public Opinion and Representation Large shifts in opinion -> changes in policy District level Congruence in some policy domains Strongest in states with referendum Strongest in states with referendum

Public Opinion and Representation Can reign in lobbyists When is public opinion influential? When it sends a clear message When it moves dramatically When Issue is Salient Limits Not all issues salient Not all issues salient Public opinion shifts Public opinion shifts

Public Opinion and Elections Surveys allow for forecasting Can enable strategic voting Large impact on fundraising Horse race coverage

Presidential Approval “Do you generally approve of the way ________ is handling his job as president?” Important resource Increased Bargaining Power More successful with congress Success brings success

Sources of Approval (or lack thereof) The economy Both current performance and expectations Both current performance and expectations Economy as a whole more important than personal Economy as a whole more important than personal Presidential “drama” War/foreign policy Media Coverage Priming Focusing attention on particular areas Focusing attention on particular areas Can help or hurt overall approval Can help or hurt overall approval

Political Trust Most of the time, can you trust government to do the right thing? Trend- Generally decreasing Similar trend for other institutions as well Sources? Policy Dissatisfaction Increasing gap between promises/results Political Scandal/Media

Political Trust Consequences Decreased Turnout? Electoral Choice Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengers Benefits 3 rd party candidates and challengers Difficulty building policy support

Tolerance A willingness to tolerate the presence of ideas that you do not agree with Stouffer % of respondents support abstract liberties 30-35% support applications of those liberties The more educated more likely to be tolerant

Tolerance More recent work Gap between abstract and applied Gap between educated and not? Different groups-> different results When allowed to pick groups they don’t like, more educated nearly as intolerant Americans not much more tolerant than in the 50s?

The Media Organizations that provide information to the public Information on politics Information on events Information on conditions

Past Media Research Started in late 40s as a response to WWII Authoritarian Personality- Personality and Supporting Fascism Early Media- Propaganda and support for fascism

Propaganda

Past Media Research “Hypodermic Needle” model Still assumed in much of popular political discourse Generally not supported by research

Past Media Research Minimal Effects Model 50’s-80’s Media had very little impact on public opinion. No evidence of direct persuasion No evidence of direct persuasion In campaigns, Party ID was main factor determining vote choice In campaigns, Party ID was main factor determining vote choice Limited volatility Limited volatility

Past Media Research McClure and Patterson The Unseeing Eye “Television’s Image making power is a myth.” “The only noticeable effect of campaign news is an increased tendency among voters to view politics in the same trivial terms that the newscasts depict it. Regular viewers of network news are likely to describe an election campaign as a lot of nonsense rather than a choice between fundamental issues”

Modern Media and Public Opinion Iyengar and Kinder: News That Matters Subtle Effects Agenda Setting PrimingFraming

News not so great at telling what to think But powerful at telling people what to think about Increased media attention to an issue increases importance placed on it Can trump personal experiences

Agenda Setting Health care- in 90s-78% of people satisfied with their care, but large majorities think there is a health care crisis Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasing Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watch

Agenda Setting Hypothesis- those problems receive prominent attention on the national news become the problems the viewing public regard as the nations most important Implicit- More coverage-> more importance Other factors may make story prominent too

Vivid Cases Does telling of the story have an impact? Presentation of vivid story (With human interest story) or pallid story (statistics) Expectation- Vividness will be more likely to set the agenda Mixed results In most cases, vivid no more effective, if not less In stories with race, strong negative impact on agenda setting if person portrayed is black

Lead Stories Another facet of presentation Expectation- First story will be viewed as more important than later stories We all have expectations about where stories go in broadcast/paper Mostly confirmed This varies by medium- E.G. On internet, less of an agenda setting effect

Agenda Setting Health care 80%- My Doctor Usually Explains things to me 50%- Doctors Usually Explain things to their patients 65%- Doctors are too interested in making money 25%- My doctor is too interested in making money Crime- In 90s- Crime decreased, crime coverage increased, 50% of public thinks crime is increasing Fear of crime- Not related to victimhood, knowing a crime victim, strongly related to how much TV you watch

Agenda Setting-Importance Perceptions of national problems more politically important than perceptions of personal problems Problem- Media Coverage can lead to misperceptions Problem- Possible manipulation Upside- Allow people to consider more than own experiences Upside- Can highlight significant problems

Priming Def: The standards citizens use to judge a president [or other figure] may be substantially by which stores newscasts choose to cover, and consequently, which considerations are made generally accessible Coverage does not necessarily change overall evaluation, changes criteria of evaluation Overall evaluation may go up or down depending on how president is viewed as doing on a specific domain

Priming Example- George Bush and Gulf War As war coverage increases, so does approval As economic coverage increases, decreases Irony- Economy not so bad as media portrayals

Framing Because frames permeate public discussions of politics, they in effect teach ordinary citizens how to think about and understand complex social problems... Elites wage a war of frames because they know that if their frame becomes the dominant way of thinking about a problem, then the battle of public opinion has been won”- Nelson and Kinder 1996

Framing Sniderman’s Value Pluralism Model- People have a number of values that they hold strongly but that are incompatible with one another Issues can tap any of a number of these values Framing can determine which values are deemed relevant for evaluating the issue

Klan Rally Experiment Tolerance is a tricky issue Especially the issue of tolerating intolerance Two sets of values Free Speech Free Speech Public Safety Public Safety Which values applied make difference for whether people support right to march

Framing Effects Sexual Psychopaths Military in Iraq Health Care Abortion

Who is Susceptible to Media Effects? Those who are exposed Moderate exposure Moderate exposure Those who are moderately aware Those who are trusting of the media Political moderates?

Media and Elections Intense Coverage Horse Race Journalism Public Dissatisfaction

Media Bias The Problem- disconnect with reality Perception- Liberal bias Racial Bias? Class bias? Audience bias

News Norms Impartiality Equal Time ConflictNovelty

Media Types Newspapers Broadcast Media RadioNarrowcasting?CableInternet

Internet And Politics Wide range of viewpoints Interactive Paradox- Loss of civil society? Reinforcement of views More of the Same?