2003-JLD-05-1 Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Potential Risk Reduction In Asia Kunming, China April 2004

2003-JLD-05-2 Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government * Representing GE and RR ** Observer DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

2003-JLD-05-3 Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study CAST Data analyses Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

2003-JLD-05-4 Effectiveness that an intervention has for reducing the accident rate if incorporated Portion of world fleet with intervention implemented (),  Accident Risk Reduction = General Methodology for Calculating the Potential Benefit of a Safety Enhancing Intervention

2003-JLD-05-5 Process Example - Values Used are Hypothetical.41 Intervention not effective on accident (.52x.797) Output to Strategy 1 Accident Prevention Portion of Accident that would have been eliminated by Interventions =.59 Intervention is effective (1-.41) Other Inter- ventions.52 Probability that EGPWS will not be effective EGPWS CFIT Training Aid Airplane does not have EGPWS installed (1-installed portion).4= % of Fleet Airplane has EGPWS installed but it is not effective. (portion with EGPWS x (1-effectiveness)).12=.6(1-.80) 60% Fleet Incorporation 80% Effective.697=.9(1-.226) Airplane does not have Inter #2 installed (1-installed portion) Airplane has Inter #2 installed but it is not effective. (portion with Inter #2 x (1-effectiveness))

2003-JLD-05-6 Spreadsheet Example – Historical Airplane Accidents and Proposed Safety Enhancements

2003-JLD-05-7 Regional Perspective Accident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003* Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. * 2003 Preliminary Information United States and Canada 0.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Europe 0.7 China 0.5 Middle East 3.1 Africa 13.3 Asia 1.7 World 1.0 Oceania 0.0 (Excluding China) JAA Non JAA – 1.2 C.I.S. 1 11/1/0 REG-053a CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction JSSI 35 SEs 5 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + ASET Just forming up COSCAP’s Asia 9 SEs on plan 7 SEs in study 57% reduction COSCAP CIS Just starting

All Regions Combined Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP SCF-NP ICE Midair FIRE-NI FUEL RI ARC RE USOS WSTRW ADRM OTHER-BIRD Fatality Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

Part 121 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total LOC Flt CFIT Fire/Explosion Runway Collision LOC GND Midair Crew Inc Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Evac Portion of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining Exact Severity Weighting Method

Asia (Operator Domicile) Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Grand Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP USOS FIRE-NI ARC RE ICE FUEL Fatality Risk Risk Eliminated Remaining Risk

Asia (Operator Domicile) Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If COSCAP Plan (SE 1,2,3,10,11,12,14,15,16) is Adopted (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Grand Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP USOS FIRE-NI ARC RE ICE FUEL Fatality Risk Risk Eliminated Remaining Risk

Asia (Operator Domicile) Part 121 Equivalent World Wide Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If COSCAP Plan (SE 1,2,3,10,11,12,14,15,16) is Adopted (2007 CAST Plan Implementation Values Except 50%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Grand Total CFIT LOC-I SCF-PP USOS FIRE-NI ARC RE ICE FUEL Fatality Risk Risk Eliminated Remaining Risk

Asia (Operator Domicile) Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Score of CAST Plan SEs Relative to Region (2007) CAST Plan Implementation Levels) CFIT TAWS- one project 8. CFIT PAI-XLS (ILS, MLS, GLS) CFIT SOPs – one project 6. CFIT PAI-RNAV 3-D instrume.. 7. CFIT PAI-RNAV RNP instrume ALAR Flight Crew Training CFIT Prevention Training – LOC Training – Advanced CFIT CRM Training 14. ALAR Policies (Safety Cultu CFIT Proactive Safety Pro LOC Policies and Procedur.. 3. CFIT PAI-Vertical angles (PAI Vertical Situation Display 30. LOC Training- Human Facto CFIT ATC CFIT Training –... Score (% Fatality Risk Reduction)

2003-JLD Delta Increase Over COSCAP Asia Fatality Risk Reduction Associated with Implementation of SEs to the 2007 CAST Plan Level Full CAST Plan (46 SEs) 74.3% COSCAP Asia (1,2,3,10,11,12,14,15,16) 56.7% COSCAP Asia %60.3% COSCAP Asia %60.6% COSCAP Asia %59.9% COSCAP Asia %59.4% COSCAP Asia %57.3% COSCAP Asia %56.8% COSCAP Asia %63.6% COSCAP Asia %66.0% COSCAP Asia %68.0% COSCAP Asia %68.2% COSCAP Asia %68.4% COSCAP Asia %65.8% Effect of SEs On the Fatality Risk - Asia

2003-JLD Effect of SEs On the Fatality Risk - Asia 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% COSCAP Asia (1,2,3,10,11,12,14,15,16) COSCAP Asia + 6 COSCAP Asia +23COSCAP Asia +31COSCAP Asia +26COSCAP Asia +30COSCAP Asia +13 COSCAP Asia COSCAP Asia COSCAP Asia COSCAP Asia COSCAP Asia COSCAP Asia Fatality Risk Reduction Delta Increase Over COSCAP Asia Fatality Risk Reduction Associated with Implementation of SEs to the 2007 CAST Plan Level

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