John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

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Presentation transcript:

John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

Petroleum Prices Helps Families In Modest Income Areas

Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 23.6% 100.0

Consumer Confidence, Needed To Help Homes Sales

Interest Rates Remain Benign Encourages Home Sales

California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level

California Job Gains/Losses ,062,758 Great Recession ,938,092 Up +875, % Up Recovery

Very Rapid Job Growth: 3 Straight Years! p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!

Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2014!

IE Unemployment Rate: Closing In on the National Level

The Issue: Poverty

Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children Time To Stop Talking & Do Something About This!

Health Care

Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth % of Job Growth Median Pay $54,261

Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 27.7% More People Per Health Care Worker in % More People Per Health Care Worker in 2010

Sophisticated Warehousing Operations

Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown

Fulfillment Warehousing

E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

Net Industrial Space Absorption 19.6 million

Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%

Logistics Incredibly Important To Inland Empire’s Economic Health Mary 23% of New Jobs Remember: Every Gold Mine Job Also Funds Another Secondary Tier Job Median Pay $45,677

PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%

Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 4.0% of U.S. Growth

CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs

Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs % of Job Growth Median Pay $49,567

Construction: Finally Coming Back

Notices of Default At Low Levels (873 in August 2015) Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr nd Qtr % to 12.3%

Home Price Trends 83.5% -26.9%

Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists

Affordability to Median Income Household 2 nd Quarter 2015 I. Empire: 46%-54% LA: 30%-70% Orange: 20%-80% SD: 25%-75%

Home Sales Volume Finally Some Upward Motion

The Future: Survey of 1,600 Millennials Long Term Goals 66% want to live in the suburbs 24% want to live in rural areas 10% want to live in a city center Want to live in more space than they have now 81% want three or more bedrooms in their home

Construction Jobs: Finally Growing Median Pay $51, % of Job Growth

Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $585,199 $417,443 $484,409 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $463,034 $440,000 CORONA $436,898 TEMECULA $358,516$399,676 $590,000 Claremont $360,087$351,504 Loma Linda

Migration of Educated Workers

Migration of AA or Higher

Diversity Challenge

Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Information, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $65, % of Growth

Office Space Net Absorption 492,858

Office Vacancy Rate 15.0%

Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency % of Job Growth Median Pay $28,927

Federal, State, Local Government Median Pay $57, % of Job Growth

Job Quality Mgmt & Professions California: 14.4% Inland Empire: 5.1%