Folie 1 Financing Concentrating Solar Power - Subsidy or Investment? Franz Trieb Stuttgart, 15.06.2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Folie 1 Financing Concentrating Solar Power - Subsidy or Investment? Franz Trieb Stuttgart,

Folie 2 A Strategy for CSP Finance

Folie 3 DLR 2009 Challenge 1: Investment replaces fuel consumption Fuel

Folie 4 Challenge 2: Known immediate cost but unknown future savings

Folie 5 Challenge 3: Fix Cost but Non-Fix Revenue German power market during the first week-end of October 2009

Folie 6 Challenge 4: Initial Cost Levels above Market Price Ragwitz 2009

Folie 7 1.Long-term investment (20-40 years) not only for the power plants but also for their „fuels“. 2.Unknown future savings compared to volatile and unpredictable conventional fuel prices. 3.Known long-term cost but unknown long-term revenues if electricity output is fluctuating and sold at spot markets. 4.Additional cost of early plants cannot be recovered under conventional market conditions and less if competitors are subsidized.  Pioneers are punished by market forces because markets are adapted to conventional power schemes. Investment Challenges

Folie 8 Model Case Power Park:

Folie 9

Folie 10 Model Case Cost Structure

Folie CSP Required Tariff Model

Folie 12 B Break Even with Average Cost

Folie 13 B B1 B2 B3 Break Even with different load segments

Folie 14 Case 1: 100% Substitution in peak and medium load segment by CSP

Folie 15 a b c Case 1: 100% Substitution in peak and medium load segment by CSP

Folie 16 Calculation of Annual Solar Share in the Initial Phase

Folie 17 1st Step: The Load Curve is devided into Peak, Medium and Base Load

Folie 18 In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week

Folie 19 Solar Peak Load

Folie 20 2nd Step: The peak segment is separated and then, the lower part is covered by CSP (solar or hybrid), while the upper part (residual capacity) is covered by conventional peaking plants

Folie 21 In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week

Folie 22 3rd Step: Medium Load is separated and the lower part covered by CSP

Folie 23 In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week

Folie 24 4th Step: Base Load is separated and the lower part covered by CSP

Folie 25 In higher time resolution it looks like this for a summer week

Folie 26 Calculation of Annual Solar Share Summary

Folie 27

Folie 28 a b c Case 2: Partial Substitution of Fuel by CSP