Program Specifically Designed for Senior Executives Issues and Insights Applicable to a Wide Range of Businesses and Industries First-Hand, Live Access to STRATFOR Intelligence and Forecasting

Special Guest: Dr. George Friedman, Chairman and Chief Intelligence Officer Presenter: Peter Zeihan, Senior Analyst Moderator: Stephen Sunshine, VP

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Technology Demography Cooperation/Competition Bretton Woods and Beyond

New markets, new players –Internet –Internal combustion engine –Avionics Shrinking the world –Railroads –Refrigeration –Telegraph Productivity

The American advantage –Size –Age –Immigration –Location

India vs. the United States Finland vs. the United States It is about tailoring your policies to take advantage of your environment

: Age of empires : Great Depression and War Characterized by intense economic competition on competing economic standards

WWII and Great Depression provided impetus for a new – cooperative – system IMF and World Bank Maximize trade Common economic space GATT and the WTO

Economic means to geopolitical ends Part of containment policy U.S. provides market of first and last resort and accepts chronic trade deficits; allies submit to U.S. security policy GATT and NATO two sides of the same coin

1992 marked the beginning of a unipolar geopolitical system Cold War security guarantees no longer needed to be absolute Players began to reevaluate their positions: how much is the U.S. market worth in terms of political constraints? New players – such as China and Russia – never agreed to the original trade off

Those decisions had consequences “Trade off” means two sides Bush II’s goal: Secure long-term trend and ensure permanent U.S. dominance –Political –Military –Economic

Manipulating exchange rates Increased subsidy levels An end to the WTO Limited market access unless target is politically useful Hardball with China