Spatial distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25

Mega-project Phase I  Part 1: Uncertainty related to pattern Study 1 Study 1 Study 2 Study 2  Part 2: Feasibility and cost of Phase II Phase II: Measuring the distribution of mature and old forest

Uncertainty related to pattern

Outline 1. Landscape pattern Current knowledge 3. The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern 4. The value of pattern for different species 5. Summary and recommendations

inter-patch distance habitat patch unsuitable habitat Landscape pattern 101

Habitat loss

How useful is habitat

Territories and dispersal

Current knowledge  Objective: attain a natural landscape pattern Risk % of natural patch-size class

The influence of harvest pattern on old forest pattern: a comparison with natural

Simulation Variables  Disturbance rate Low  32% old Low  32% old High  11% old High  11% old  Disturbance pattern Natural Natural 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules 80 ha blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules Biodiversity guidebook blocks ± greenup rules

32% old; natural disturbance32% old; guidebook logging Old forest

11% old; natural disturbance11% old; guidebook logging Old forest

Old forest area greatly influences patch size distribution Natural Disturbance

Disturbance type influences patch size distribution Guidebook harvesting with greenup rulesNatural disturbance

Conclusions  Guidebook (“Natural”) harvesting patterns will not create natural old forest patterns  Amount of old forest had the biggest influence on pattern  Guidebook harvesting with greenup rules is the closest

The value of pattern for different species: a summary of the Nadina Study

Simulation Methods  Disturbance Mountain pine beetle Mountain pine beetle Harvesting Harvesting Artificial landscapes Artificial landscapes  Harvest pattern 80 ha blocks 80 ha blocks Large, variably-sized blocks Large, variably-sized blocks  Habitat analysis for virtual animals Territories Territories Connectivity Connectivity

Virtual animals  Habitat affinity  Territory size and dispersal range  Territory plasticity (expansion)

Results Variable “Population” response Old forest area Cutblock size - Old forest patch size on artificial landscape

Artificial landscapes

Conclusions  Harvesting pattern does not influence old forest habitat use (under the range of conditions evaluated).  Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use

Summary  The current harvest pattern indicator is not appropriate because Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Guidebook harvesting patterns do not create natural old forest patterns Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use Harvesting patterns do not influence old forest habitat use  Old forest pattern has some potential to influence habitat use  Habitat amount influences habitat use

Recommendations  Ignore pattern and rely on habitat amount or  Use a pattern indicator that assesses old forest (and other seral stages) directly  Continue to implement “guidebook” harvesting patterns

Feasibility and cost of measuring the distribution of mature and old forest Dave Daust, Feb 25

Why measure old forest? Recall past study  amount amount of different old forest ecosystems (ecosystem representation)

Different ecosystems  Climate  Topography  Local soil conditions  Disturbance  Succession Site series Seral stages Chance

Benefit/cost analysis TEM Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysis Variant TEM Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysis PEM Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Benefit = accuracy

Benefit/cost analysis PEM Updated VRI Variant VRI TEM Cost = delay + $ for analysisBenefit = accuracy $ $ $ $ now > 2 yr $ > 5 yr ? never ?

Methods  Get the data  Mess with it  Do the analysis  And write report

Recommendation  Use existing VRI (best benefit/cost ratio)

Methods TaskDays Obtain spatial data for Babine Watershed - Clean up data and create a single “forest” coverage (map) - Define forested land, create seral stages and create site classes 0.5 Calculate seral stage distribution of each Variant- site combination 0.5 Prepare report 0.5 Prepare presentation and present to BWMT 0.5