Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural.

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Presentation transcript:

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives US/China Grain Trade Trends and Challenges Rebecca Bratter, Director Trade Development Agricultural Outlook Forum February 24, 2011

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives Percent GDP Growth World Latin America USA Canada UK Japan China India

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China: Growing Market Dynamics bring growing opportunities Population 1.3 billion Rapid rise in incomes  Changes in diets Middle class to grow to 700 million, 75% Urban Per capita income: – TODAY $5,000 – SOON $10,000 - $40,000

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China in World Agriculture #1 producer of cotton, rice, pork, peanuts, numerous fresh fruits, milk #2 producer of corn #1 importer of soybeans, cotton Source: USDA/FAS PSD online

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China -Transition and Uncertainty Food security concerns Lack of supply/demand information Shift from self-sufficiency policy, net exporter to net importer Declining corn stocks Food price inflation

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China Corn Consumption v. Production

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China Import Trends CHINA CORN & DDGS USGC in the market since 1982 Exported 2.4 MMT DDGS to China First significant purchases of corn since 1995

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China Corn Import Outlook ?

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China DDGS Imports (Jan-Dec)

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China Corn Stocks to Use Private estimates

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives Commercial Hogs Consume Grains 35% 65%

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives

Growth of dairy feed is faster than swine, poultry and beef cattle

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives U.S. Corn Yield Projections

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives U.S. Ethanol Production

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives U.S. corn producers’ commitment Increase quality and timeliness of market information Increase production to meet export needs We never close. Exports available every day. Continue to innovate, adapt technology. Sustain infrastructure to meet world demands.

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives USDA Import Projections

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives China Possible

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives US Corn Outlook

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives Corn outlook plus China

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives Concluding Thoughts How much will corn will China import How much will China’s corn demand impact US stock to end/use ratio Impact on corn prices What about DDGs Is the US prepared for the impending wave of demand How will China manage transition to net importer?

Developing Markets | Enabling Trade | Improving Lives Thank You