Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future FuelishFuelish

FuelishFuelish Plants turn carbon dioxide, water and sun’s energy to more plant and oxygen; Other life “burns” plant with oxygen to get that energy; If buried without oxygen, plant isn’t burned, and heating makes fossil fuel; Woody plants-->peat (in sediment; Bear Meadows) -->lignite (in sedimentary rock)-->bituminous (in harder sedimentary rock, western PA) --> anthracite (in metamorphic rock, eastern PA); Algae-->gas from bacteria (Bear Meadows)-->oil (with gas) (western PA)-->gas (eastern PA) (float up and escape to be burned unless trapped by geology).

Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future Take It to the Limit Fossil fuels are NOT infinite:  nature really is efficient at recycling;  oil & coal companies good, found the easy stuff;  not a lot set aside (ANWR oil estimated to equal only just over 2 years of US imports) World oil production peak likely in next decades;  At vaguely recognizable prices and current demand, probably close to a century of oil and gas, a few centuries of coal;  But demand rising rapidly, so less time.

Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future You’re in the Greenhouse Now Some gases let visible light through (sun) but partly block infrared (return from Earth); Makes planet warmer than otherwise, so we “glow” brighter to force energy past the gases; We are increasing these gases (esp. carbon dioxide) a lot, and they will stay up for centuries, millennia or longer;

Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future With High Confidence Our greenhouse gases will warm world, amplified by feedbacks such as melting of reflective ice increasing warming (maybe 16 o F over centuries if we really burn fossil fuels, vs. barely-noticeable 1 o F so far); Positive and negative impacts on us, but mostly negative for warming more than a few degrees:  Sea-level rise from ice melt, expanding ocean;  Summertime drying of grain belts;  Not-nice tropical heat.

Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future Making Money We have to switch from fossil fuels; will we do so before or after we change the world? Reasonable estimates say switch needs few decades of serious research and 1% of economy:  This is in line with other clean-up costs now;  This is something like $400 billion per year now; Not a lot of scientific disagreement on these points; But much political, social, economic disagreement (which is completely expected, and in line with previous environmental issues).

Unit 12 - Biodiversity, Global Warming, and the Future Lions and Tigers and Bears? Why save biodiversity--medicines, other useful things from living types; more-diverse ecosystems produce more; living types “canaries in coal mine” to warn us of trouble; ethics; Early and modern humans hard on biodiversity--next mass extinction?; Smaller islands have fewer species (easier to eliminate smaller population), so isolating patches of wilderness in separate national parks will lose species in those parks; Climate change will complicate, forcing migration when there may not be migration pathways.