Statistical Bias in Research Studies & Polls AQR.

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Presentation transcript:

Statistical Bias in Research Studies & Polls AQR

Observational vs. Experimental Observational study collects data about some characteristic(s) of the population. The data can be collected by observation, by a survey or interview, or by other means. Experimental study the researcher separates the participants into one or more groups and applies some sort of treatment. One group will be the control group that does not receive treatment. The other group receives the treatment. At the end both groups are compared. After treatment, the variable of interest is measured and the results are compared.

Observational vs. Experimental Observational study example Radio rating services sometimes collect data on listenership by asking participants to record the date, time, and station each time they listen to the radio. Other rating services distribute monitoring devices that automatically record this information anytime the participant has the radio turned on. Still others call participants and ask them about their listening habits. The data are then compiled so that advertisers know which stations are the most popular at specific times during the day. Each of these approaches is an example of an observational study, which collects data about some characteristic(s) of the population. The data can be collected by observation, by a survey or interview, or by other means.

Observational vs. Experimental Experimental study example A 17-year-old student designed a science fair project with 72 mice randomly assigned to three groups: hard rock music, Mozart, and no music at all (called a control group). The mice in the first two groups were exposed to music 10 hours a day. Three times a week, all of the groups were timed as they ran through a maze. An analysis of results showed that the 24 mice in the no-music group averaged about a 5-minute improvement in their maze completion time, while the Mozart mice improved 8.5 minutes. The hard rock mice actually got slower—an average of four times slower! Another interesting fact: The student had to start his experiment over because all the hard-rock mice killed each other. None of the classical mice did that. This is an example of an experimental study.

Null hypothesis (Ho) Is your initial guess. Assuming what is tested has no effect. Alternative hypothesis (Ha) Opposite of your null hypothesis. It means something has changed, is different or incorrect. μ = The population mean, true mean, the average of the variable being tested.