Dr. Xue Li IWEP/CASS

Aim to achieve a regional power with global influence into a comprehensive global power, OR realization of China’s renaissance ( China’s Dream in president Xi’s word)

How to do? Domestic dimension: (1)ideology:pay more attention to marxism; (2) organization: strengthen CPC authority and solidarity; (3)culture:traditional Chinese culture; (4)economy: Yangzi River economic belt and Jing-Jin-Ji collaborative development as two main engines; industries upgrading; New Normal, 6.5% until 2020;

Foreign dimension Relocate China: from East Asia Country to central country of Asia and the main power at the east part of the Eurasia continent Adjust foreign policy: from humble policy( 韬光养晦 ) to struggling for achievements( 奋发有为 ) Top design for the dimension: OBOR strategy; point: the USA; routes:6+2; area: Eurasia continent

China’s geographic location

Capability and demand for obor Capability: (1)Advantages in technology and manufacturing industry; (2)Overcapacity in production: RMB 4 trillion economy stimulating plan in 2008; (3)Foreign currency reserve: USD3.96 trillion Demand: (1)desire to development of the surrounding countries; (2)China’s obligation to help SR countries; (3)China needs friends and markets

The way to carry out OBOR Economic cooperation is the Main Approach: (1)6 econmic corridors:BCIM, CPEC, CMR, NAELB,C- CEPEC,C-CA-WAEC (2), 2 maritime routes: China-SCS-MS-IO- ME,EA,MEDITERRANEAN, China-SCS-South Pacific countries Measures to guarantee: (1) Trade aspect: bilateral/multilateral FTA, upgrading Sino- ASEAN FTA, Sino-ASEAN Cooperation Fund, RCEP, FTAAP (2) Financial institutions: Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Silk Road Fund, New Development Bank of BRICS, and planning SCO Development Bank

Six economic corridors?

Two MSR routes?

Other ways to cooperation Politics and Security : (1) Regional Collective Security: CICA--Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia, M-26,O-13 (2)South China Sea Dispute:is China going to make compromise? It depends on ASEAN’s position on OBOR

ASEAN’S position in obor One economic corridor; two Maritime Silk Road routes; main platform for multilateral cooperation in economic, cultural,political, security and military fields Cooperation with ASEAN: Core interest for China? Function as a quasi–core interest with options Why?

Category of National Interests LayersImportance to CountryAnalogy to Body Core Interestkey to the country’s survival Brain/Heart Important Interestissues have significant influence to the nation’s development Arm/Leg General Interestimpacts on development or some functions Finger/Toe Secondary Interestissues have little influence to the whole state Nail/Hair

China’s perspective OBOR: close to core interest for Xi Administration; One belt— the peninsula; two roads—through SCS; ASEAN—the hub for two roads. SCS dispute: close to important interest while Cooperation with ASEAN function as a quasi–core interest with options Policy choice: emphasize on enlarging cooperation and common interest; diminish the impact from SCS dispute. It is necessary for Chine to make some compromise in SCS issue. Evidence? Suzhou Conference, Dural track approach, five commitments

Dural track approach Announced by foreign minister Wang Yi at Naypyidaw,Myanmar, in August 10, 2014 relevant disputes should be addressed by countries directly concerned through friendly consultations and negotiation in a peaceful way. peace and stability in the South China Sea being jointly maintained by China and ASEAN countries.

Five commitments by Wang yi in August 3, Singapore (1) maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea (2) peacefully solving disputes through negotiation and consultation (3) controlling differences through rules and regulations.-ASEAN(especially claimants) (4) maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight in the area (5) gaining mutual benefits through cooperation.- China

ASEAN Claimant’s choices Confrontation: bypassed Vision and action in March, 2015, in which emphasizes cooperation through (1) consulting,co-constructing and sharing 坚持共商共 建共享 (2)help bridge the development plans between the silk road countries. 积极推进沿线国家发展战略的相互对 接。

How to view Land reclamation? NO.1: The first step for further action: ADIZ, EEZ, military deployment, Oil and Gas development,—— what consequences? NO. 2: to have appropriate presence in Spratly Islands in right time, which will be based for settlement, compromise,cooperation,etc.——better than NO. 1?

implication Generally speaking, the ball is on ASEAN claimants’ side, especially those who are inclined to confront. China needs to behave more positively,and more actively responds to other claimants on issues such COC, Potential fields to cooperation: Ocean Park, Bi&Multi fishery agreement, joint fishing ban,joint military exercise, etc

THE END PPT For “Maritime Silk Road and International Relations in The South China Sea: Present Situation and Prospects” Hilton Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam November, 26, 2015 Question is welcome.