Great Basin January – April 2016 Winter / Fire Potential Outlook Basil Newmerzhycky Gina McGuire Shelby Law Nanette Hosenfeld GBCC Predictive Services Meteorologists

Contents Recent Weather El Nino January through April Weather/Fire Potential Forecast

Recent Weather Trend December Temperature Departure from Average December Precipitation Percent of Average

Water Year Precipitation

Snowpack – December 29, 2015

What a Difference a Year Makes! December 2014December 2015

Drought MonitorDrought Outlook Drought Monitor and Outlook December 29, 2015 Dec. 17, 2015 – March 31, 2016

El Nino – Strongest in 18 Years Sea Surface Temperature (SST) SST Anomaly

El Nino 2015 – Strongest in 18 Years El Nino most likely at peak (warm sea surface temperatures off the South American coast) El Nino will likely gradually weaken through the spring with precipitation increases through the winter/spring across the Great Basin. Most common weather patterns in an El Nino winter :

Expected Weather January – April - PS

National Fire Potential Outlook Normal fire potential is expected for January through April. Fire activity typically is very low from January through April. Brief periods of increased fire activity are still possible later in the outlook period if drier weather emerges for longer periods and winds increase.

Summary Drought conditions persist over much of Nevada, but will likely see some improvements through the spring, with greater improvements further east. Annual and perennial fuels are in dormancy for the winter. Strong El Nino will dominate the weather pattern through the spring. Drier northern areas…wetter southern areas. No Fire Concerns through the period. Precipitation through the period will play a significant role for fuels/fire potential for the 2016 fire season.

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