WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France 1 Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF” Sultan Salim AL-Yahyai Fauzi Bader Al-Busaidi Khalid.

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Presentation transcript:

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France 1 Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF” Sultan Salim AL-Yahyai Fauzi Bader Al-Busaidi Khalid Khamis Al-Jahwari Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Sultanate of Oman

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France2 Location of Oman

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France3 Aim of the Project MONITORING THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS HIGHLIGHTS THE STRENTHS & WEAKMESSES OF THE MODELS Try To TUNE THE MODEL TO EVALUATE THE FORECASTS OF OMAN REGIONAL MODEL (ORM).

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France4 Design Issues Stations Grouping Station with similar topographical features Costal Station Actual Station height – model grid point height <= X m Verification Scheme Most representative Grid Point. Interpolation of the surrounding Grid Points

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France5 Design Issues T 2m (  C ) Max temp. 2m (  C ) Min Temp. 2m (  C ) TD 2m (  C ) MSL Pressure (hPa) FF 10m ( knots ) DD 10m (degrees). Total Presp. Amount of low clouds DPD Continuous ElementsCategorical Elements Elements to be verified

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France6 Design Issues OBS utc day A-3 A-3 A-2 A-2 A-1 A-1 A 12h fct 24h fct 36h fct 48h fct 60h fct 72h fct 0h fct Model run Forecast Range to be verified

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France7 Design Issues OBS Quality Control 1) Elements value thresholds 2) Comparing OBS with model first guess

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France8 Design Issues Hit rate with a margin of error Bias Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE): OBS NoYes ba FCT dcNo  Hit rate  Probability of detection(POD)  False Alarm Rate (FAR)  Threat Score (TS)  Frequecy bias(FB)  Heidke Skill Score ( HSS ) Continuous Elements Categorical Elements Statistics to be used

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France9 Implementation ormverif NWP machine DMO (FCT) MOS OBS MSS Windows based My SQL ODBC

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France10 Main Menu

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France11 Averaging Data Plotter

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France12 Table Viewer

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France13 Future Work Implementing the Interpolation verif. Schema Superimposing the Results of the verif. For more than one model Verifying the upper levels data Verifying the Wave Model

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France14 ORMVERIF Availability Package available on request for WMO members: Brazilian navy, UAE Met., Vietnam met., malaysia met. User Manual Tech. Documentation

WSN05, 5-9 Sep.2005, Toulouse, France 15 Thank You