Walgreen Co. (WAG) Presented April 19, 2007. Investment Managers Jessica Boghosian Shengdong Zhu

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
INDIANA UNIVERSITY FALL 2002 WHO? WHAT? WHEN? WHERE? WHY?
Advertisements

Valuing an Acquisition
NYSE: NGVC 11/29/2012 Turner Novak. Buy 75 $19.88 $1, % of portfolio.
CAPITAL BUDGETING WITH LEVERAGE. Introduction  Discuss three approaches to valuing a risky project that uses debt and equity financing.  Initial Assumptions.
Analysts: Su Chen Gina Huang Xuhao Yang Jonathan Barki Date: November 10 th,
Appendix D Investments in Other Corporations © 2009 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Appendix D Investments in Other Corporations PowerPoint Authors:
Valuing Stocks Chapter 5.
NORDSTROM, INC. Nicole Conte ACG2021- Sec Welcome to Nordstrom. Would you like to sign in?sign in your accountyour account | shopping bag: 1 item.
Valuing an Acquisition
Financial Statements Economics 98 / 198 Fall 2007 Copyright 2007 Jason Lee.
Copyright © 2007 Prentice-Hall. All rights reserved 1 Financial Statement Analysis Chapter 17.
MGMT 315: Financial Valuation Project Ashli Edwards, Xiang Li, and Katerina Goudouros.
WALGREEN CO. Matt Byford Brandon Honey Shivam Khanna Joe Vaccaro October 28, 2008.
NYSE: WAG Junying Shen Xiaosi (Sarah) Song Chi (Tracy) Zhang Xiangyuan (Arthur) Zhong Nov 6, 2012.
Eli Lilly and company Matt Spahlinger ACG
FORECASTING PERFORMANCE Presented by: Teerachai Supojchalermkwan Krisna Soonsawad Chapter 11.
Apple Corporation Sample Accounts Receivable Subsidiary Ledger
Muge Tian Yanlei Xu Ben Hier Mohamed Ibrahim November 29, 2007.
Copyright © 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall. To make informed decisions about a company Helpful in managing the company Comparison.
Financial Statement Analysis
© 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.
1 Chapter 10 Equity Valuation Tools Portfolio Construction, Management, & Protection, 5e, Robert A. Strong Copyright ©2009 by South-Western, a division.
CENTURY 21 ACCOUNTING © Thomson/South-Western LESSON 17-2 Calculating Earnings Performance and Efficiency Analysis.
COMPANY PRESENTATION Walgreen Company An Overview.
14-1 Financial Statement Analysis Chapter 14 Electronic Presentation by Douglas Cloud Pepperdine University.
1 Valuing the Enterprise: Free Cash Flow Valuation Discount estimates of free cash flow that the firm will generate in the future. WACC: after-tax weighted.
ABLE LABORATORIES, INC.. Safe Harbor Statement Except for historical facts, the statements in this presentation, as well as oral statements or other written.
ConAgra Foods, Inc Bryna Fugate ACG Executive Summary  The company needs to raise their net income.  One good point is that they reduced the.
Gary A. Porter and Curtis L. Norton
NYSE: WAG April 29 th, 2014 Leiyi (Sally) Huang Qun (Jett) Yu Siyang (Sylvia) Zhang.
Chapter 7 Receivables and Investments Copyright © 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. Financial Accounting: The Impact on Decision Makers 6/e.
Receivables and Investments COPYRIGHT © 2011 South-Western/Cengage Learning 7/e PowerPoint Author: Catherine Lumbattis 7.
Financing Activities: Contributed and Earned Capital Shareholders’ Equity: Common Stock Other Paid-in Capital Retained Earnings.
STAPLES COMPANY VALUATION JACKIE PHAN LATRISHA SEARCY ANNA DAI.
Limited Brands, Inc. Dixie Moseley ACG 2021 Section 002.
Chapter 7 Receivables and Investments Copyright © 2009 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. Using Financial Accounting Information: The Alternative.
Chapter 10 Questions and Answers Q1. Pennsylvania Clean Coal Company (“PCCC”) generates electricity for both industrial customers as well as consumer households.
Maria Alejandra Ramirez ACG Annual Report.
Walgreens David Mizell Date Presented: 12/09/2004.
1 CHAPTER 6 THE INCOME STATEMENT: ITS CONTENT AND USE.
Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB April 12, Investment Managers Jessica Boghosian Stephen Proffer Matthew Storkman.
Annual Report Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Scott Nelson ACG2021 sec 080.
Annual Report Annual Report El mostafa Achar El mostafa Achar ACG2021,section002 ACG2021,section002.
VALUATION MEASURING AND MANAGING THE VALUE OF COMPANIES
1 CHAPTER 13 REVENUES AND CASH COLLECTIONS. 2 Chapter Overview  Why is managing and reporting liquidity important?  Why might a company offer credit.
© 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible Web site, in whole or in part.
RCMP Spring 2006 – Gaurav Ghoge SUNRISE SENIOR LIVING, Inc. April 27, 2006.
Walgreens Acquires Familymeds Pharmacies Matt Thompson Stu Beurskens.
Presented on November 12th, 2015
P/E Ratio P/E ratio = current share price / E.P.S., where E.P.S. is earnings per share P/E ratio = current share price / E.P.S., where E.P.S. is earnings.
Research and Evaluation 4.1 INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
Chapter 9 The Cost of Capital. Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.9-1 Learning Objectives 1.Understand the concepts underlying.
WALGREEN CO. Brandon Lee Minghui Li Jeremy Smith April 29, 2008.
Walgreens Boots Alliance NASDAQ: WBA Presented by Zhi Cheng (Nicole) Low Yanan (Phoebe) Tan Zulay Sosa Bazante Rahul Gohil Shruti Shah Presented on March.
1 Research term paper Five major sections: Company background / introduction Competitive strengths Financial analysis (focus section) Stock valuation analysis.
©CourseCollege.com 1 19 Investments Learning Objectives 1.Account for Trading Investments 2.Account for Debt Investments 3.Account for Stock Investments.
© 2012 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part. Chapter.
C Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Ratio Analysis…. Types of ratios…  Performance Ratios: Return on capital employed. (Income Statement and Balance Sheet) Gross profit margin (Income Statement)
Equity Valuation. Methods Balance Sheet Models Discounted Cash Flow Models Multiplier Models.
Industry Analysis Food and staples retailing, 2nd largest segment of consumer staples industry Pros: defensive, stable growth, dependable revenue, low.
Profitability Analysis
Investments in Other Corporations
Cash is KING!!! How do companies boost cash?
Intercorporate Investments and Consolidations
Chapter 11 Stockholders’ equity
Chapter 9 The Cost of Capital.
Investments and Fair Value Accounting
Presentation transcript:

Walgreen Co. (WAG) Presented April 19, 2007

Investment Managers Jessica Boghosian Shengdong Zhu

Company Overview Incorporated in 1909, headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. Nation’s largest drugstore based on sales Engaged in the retail sale of prescription and non- prescription drugs and general merchandise including: beauty care, personal care, household items, candy, photofinishing, greeting cards, seasonal items, and convenience foods. Recorded its 32 nd year of consecutive earnings and sales growth. During the year, Walgreen Co. had a net increase of 476 stores, totaling to 5,461 stores located in 47 states and Puerto Rico.

Company Overview Success is dependent upon continuously opening new Walgreens stores. Walgreen Co. plans to operate more than 7,000 stores by Walgreen Co. is in the business of strategically locating new stores as well as relocating/closing existing stores.

New Walgreens Co. Stores Fiscal Year# of New Stores Over the past 7 years, Walgreen Co. has opened on average 1.28 stores/day.

National Store Distribution Walgreen Co. has made it a point to open the most stores in the states that are the popular locations for aging baby boomers to retire. Image: Walgreen Co. Annual Report 2006

Product Class Attribution to Sales Fiscal Year 2006 Fiscal Year 2005 Fiscal year 2004 Prescription Drugs 64% 63% Non- Prescription Drugs 11% 12% General Merchandise 25%

Pharmacy Sales Pharmacy sales continue to become a larger portion of Walgreens’ business. Walgreens filled 529 million prescriptions in 2006, totaling to an increase of 8.1% from the 2005 fiscal year. Sales trends are expected to continue to grow for the following reasons: Aging population Introduction of lower priced generics Continued development of innovative drugs

Medicare Part D Medicare Part D is a government initiated program to subsidize the costs of prescription drugs to individuals covered by Medicare. Part D was implemented in January of Walgreens has obtained a larger share of senior citizen patients due to this program. 35% of the prescriptions filled under this program in the first eight months were new customers to Walgreens.

New Developments Dial-a-Pharmacist Available in 14 languages, this system allows customers to discover where there is a Walgreens pharmacist that speaks his or her language. Solar Power Usage 100 stores utilize solar energy, making Walgreens the largest retail user of this source of energy. Highway Signs A new federal law allows signs to be placed on highways informing drivers of the location of 24 hour pharmacies. Several have already been planted with many more to come. Source: Walgreen Co. Annual Meeting, January 2006

Corporate Risk Walgreen Co. faces intense competition with local, regional, and national companies, many of which are infiltrating Walgreens’ existing markets. Extreme competition can have an adverse affect on prices. Third-party payors of prescription drugs are attempting to reduce costs and pharmacy reimbursement rates. On February 8 th, 2006, President Bush signed the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005 This Act will ultimately reduce Medicaid reimbursement rates to retail pharmacies. Further reduction in these rates are foreseeable.

RCMP Position Originally owned 1000 shares of WAG, purchases on October 6 th, 1999 for $25.00/share. On September 20 th, 2006, 500 shares were $49.94/share for a realized gain of $12,470. Currently own 500 shares of WAG, trading at $45.96 as of April 19, 2007 for an unrealized gain of $10,480 or 83.84%.

Role in Portfolio Walgreen Co. currently comprises 7% of our portfolio.

Correlation Matrix

5-Year Growth vs. S&P 500

Competitors Who CVS/Caremark Corp. (CVS) Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) Why Industry Specific Business Segment Specific (prescription and non-prescription drugs and general merchandise)

Out-performing Its Competitors Prescription Volume WALGREEN CO.263/day Chain Drugstores180/day Mass Retailers143/day Grocery131/day Independents100/day Source: Walgreen Co. Annual Meeting, January 2006

Out-performing Its Competitors Earnings per square foot WALGREEN CO.$46 Chain Drugstores<$23 Grocery$12 Source: Walgreen Co. Annual Meeting, January 2006

1-Year Comparables

5-Year Comparables

Comparable Analysis

Assumptions Organic growth continues to be the primary growth vehicle Future growth was estimated assuming to be in line with increasing medical costs and increasing store numbers. We assume that future growth will continue at a 13% annual rate but will gradually decrease to 9% over the next five years and then remain at a 3% annual growth rate thereafter

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ∆

Since Walgreen Co. is 100% equity financed, WACC=k e. Beta: Regression 0.1 vs. Bloomberg.66 Average =.4

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

A Note On Capital Structure Walgreen Co. is an all equity financed firm. The company owns a mere ~18% of it’s store base. The other ~82% is leased. These leases hold Walgreen Co. responsible for $ billion, but this obligation is not seen on the balance sheet as a liability to the firm. This poses potentially risk to Walgreen Co. Lets call these lease obligations “quasi-debt.” THEREFORE, it is important to keep in mind this accounting structure when valuing WAG.

Sensitivity Analysis Most likely to range from to 57.04

Portfolio Fit Sharpe Ratio a measure of the mean excess return per unit of risk in an investment asset or a trading strategy Including WAG generates a higher Sharpe Ratio

RCMP Fall ’06 Decision 500 Shares of WAG were sold last semester at $ Why? Lease Obligations WACC was adjusted upward based on the risk of outstanding lease obligations After this adjustment, the company appeared to be trading at a “significantly inflated price that, in the long term, could not be sustained.”

Recommendation HOLD. Why? Healthy management vision Stable, growing company Solid performer Leader in its class But what about these lease obligations and other business risks!? Acknowledge that every company has risk, with Wagreen Co. as no exception. We have already taken action as conservative investors by selling 500 shares.