CHALLENGES FOR ADAPTATION RESEARCH IN THE CARIBBEAN (MACC) PROJECT Dr. Ulric Trotz, MACC Project Manager AIACC ADAPTATION WORKSHOP Buenos Aires, Argentina August 24 –27, 2004

2 APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION POLICY FORMULATION 1.HAZARD IDENTIFICATION primary- climate change – rise in temperature; expected consequences e.g. Sea Level Rise Disruption of weather patterns Increase of intensity (and frequency?) of storms

3 APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION POLICY FORMULATION 2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Determine vulnerable elements in the system e.g. Coastal Infrastructure Water Resources Agriculture

4 APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION POLICY FORMULATION 3. IMPACT STUDIES Juxtaposition of hazard with vulnerabilty identifies systems at risk and nature of risk: Impacts on socio-economic systems Impacts of natural systems Quantification of impacts

5 APPROACHES TO ADAPTATION POLICY FORMULATION 4. ADAPTATION Determine responses to ameliorate impact of risks and determine feasibility of interventions Prioritisation Risk Management approach to identify most feasible “adaptation options ”

6 CHALLENGES 1. HAZARD IDENTIFICATION - Lack of climate data and comprehensive monitoring in the region - Regional models, region-specific scenarios (climate, socio-economic)

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8 CHALLENGES 2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Lack of data e.g. for coastal vulnerability studies, unavailability of baseline data Near-shore bathymetry Coastal Morphology Contour maps below 25-ft contour Geo-referenced cadastral information GIS base-maps and remote sensing Sectoral data sets

9 CHALLENGES 2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Methodological Need to fashion methodology to take account of local circumstances (greater role for stakeholder participation)

10 CHALLENGES 3. IMPACT STUDIES –Availability and choice of appropriate sectoral models –Costing Impacts

11 CHALLENGES 4. ADAPTATION –Prioritising action –Cost-benefit analysis –Implementation of “no-regrets” measures

12 CHALLENGES 4. ADAPTATION –Acceptance of paradigm that increasing resilience to present vulnerability is one step on adaptation ladder –Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into National Development Plans Disaster Mitigation Strategy and Action Plans

13 Thank you!