The 13 th Seoul International Derivative & Alternative Investment Conference Seoul, August 26, 2015 Hung Tran Fed’s Liftoff, China’s Devaluation: EM’s.

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Presentation transcript:

The 13 th Seoul International Derivative & Alternative Investment Conference Seoul, August 26, 2015 Hung Tran Fed’s Liftoff, China’s Devaluation: EM’s Perfect Storm

Institute of International Finance 2 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 3 Source: Blue Chips Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts.

Institute of International Finance 4 Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 5 Source: FRED, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 6 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance ongoing Peak year Percent rise in prices during upswing 50.2%72.0%38.9%81.3% Percent fall in prices during downswing -54.6%-43.3%-52.5%- Length of the cycle (years) Upswing Downswing Total non-oil commodity prices Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Institute of International Finance 8 Source: Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research.

Institute of International Finance 9 Source: IIF.

Institute of International Finance 10 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 11 Source: MRB Partners.

Institute of International Finance 12 Source: Haver, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 13 Source: Haver, Markit/Caixin.

Institute of International Finance 14 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 15 Source: IMF, Haver, BIS, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 16 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 17 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 18 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 19 Source: Haver.

Institute of International Finance 20 Source: CPB World Trade Monitor, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 21 Source: OECD-WTO, UNCTAD, Credit Suisse.

Institute of International Finance 22 Source: BIS, IMF, OECD, McKinsey, IIF;*Brazil, China, Czech Republic, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Turkey

Institute of International Finance 23 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 24 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 25 Source: Bloomberg, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 26

Institute of International Finance 27 Source: EPFR, IIF estimates; includes mutual funds and ETFs.

Institute of International Finance 28 Source: Haver, NN Investment Partners, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 29 Source: IIF.

Institute of International Finance 30 Source: IMF, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 31 Source: UN, IIF.

Institute of International Finance 32 Source: United Nations.1-Age years

Institute of International Finance percentEquitiesBondsFX* 2014-now Taper tantrum Financial crisis Dot-com crisis Asian crisis Change from peak to trough, EM Assets *FX: GDP weighted average of 20 EM currencies vis-à-vis USD. Source: Bloomberg, IIF.