Improving Wargaming in DoD Commander Phil Pournelle June 2015 The opinions express here are strictly those of the author and do not represent those of ONA, OSD, DoD, or the U.S. Government

Purpose and Benefits of Wargaming Fulfilling the need for abductive reasoning in institutions and leaders to compliment the analytic process Creation of an environment for creativity in the generation of theories and solutions Beginning of structuring the problem Preparing leaders for combat in the environment of the future Wargaming best value is achieved when it is part of a larger process

What should we do? Wargames: What could we do? Analysis: What is the best way to do it? Exercises: Can it really be done?

General Categories of Wargaming Creating Knowledge Conveying Knowledge Entertainment Unstructured Problem Discovery GamesEducation GamesRole Playing Structured Problem Analytic GamesTraining GamesCommercial Kriegsspiel (E.g. Risk) Exploratory Games

Characteristics of Good Exploratory Wargaming Adversarial environment focused on human decision making Iterative process leading to actionable instructions Best Practices

Characteristics of Good Exploratory Wargaming Adversarial Environment Focused on Human Decision Making – Equal Adversaries Staffing, Time, Representation, Freedom of Action, etc. – Decisions – Why did they do it? What did they decide not to do? Requires Rapporteurs – Consequences based on choices of adversaries – Why did things happen? Should not hide results nor bury them in black box

The Caffrey Triangle Win at All Costs… Emphasis: Victory Unconstrained by doctrine or culture Unconstrained by Blue’s training objectives Act like “them”… Emphasis: Realism Constrained by doctrine or culture Unconstrained by Blue’s training objectives Train me… Emphasis: A foil for Blue Unconstrained by doctrine or culture Constrained by Blue’s training objectives Source J-8 SAGD

Characteristics of Good Wargaming Game designed to address the questions at the appropriate level Requires iteration to understand the problem – Move from unstructured to structured – Move from concept to defined actions – Move from vague to rigorous Rigorous in definition of actions not necessarily rigorous in analysis, etc. Ultimate goal: Execution in real war

Characteristics of Seminar Wargames Role of Referee: Enable Discussion Adjudication: Usually very limited Potential for Player Creativity: Wide Open, Extremely Free   Predictability: Not Very Rigor: Limited Phenomenology must be understood by the players Ability for Automation is impossible   Quite often White cell and facilitators need to work very hard to keep the games within reasonable boundaries.

Characteristics of Matrix Wargames Role of Referee: Seek Consensus Adjudication: Consensus of Participants Potential for Player Creativity: Significantly Open, Mostly Free Predictability: Not Very Rigor: Limited to moderate Phenomenology must be understood by the players Ability for Automation is very limited, often impossible.

Characteristics of Free Kriegsspiel Role of Referee: Seek decisions and reasons Adjudication: Conducted by Referee Potential for Player Creativity: Limited to some degree by the umpire Predictability: Limited Rigor: Moderate Phenomenology must be understood by the Referee Ability for Automation is increasingly possible

Characteristics of Rigid Kriegsspiel Role of Referee: Resolve differences regarding rules Adjudication: Detailed rules set determines outcome Potential for Player Creativity: Extremely Limited (creativity usually breaks the game) Predictability: High Rigor: High Phenomenology must be understood by the Game Designer in advanced Ability for Automation is very possible

Uniformity is not required Rainbow Plan Games Gunnery √ Aviation √ Electronic Warfare √

Characteristics of Good Wargaming Best Practices Small Events – 8 to 12 players on a team, never more than 20 Competitive Red Team Wargames  Simulation – Do not fixate on accuracy and precision Save it for next step in cycle Iteration – Learning – Cycle of Research Grey Cell – Stephen Downes-Martin, Adjudication: The Diabolus in Machina of War Gaming, Naval War College Online COA Analysis is not the same as wargaming

Improving Wargaming in DoD Wargaming must be a part of larger process Professional Military Education – Must include wargame design in core curriculum – Difference between guided discussions (important) and wargames COA Analysis is a guided discussion – Reward and Employ expertise – Continuous Effort Revamp Title X games – Purpose? Team Building? Showcase Concepts Exploration? – Classification Warplans Scenarios Rigor