California has 5 water year types: 1 card = 1 water year Critically dry and dry years: Ace-10 black cards Normal-wet years: all red cards & all face cards Joker represents an extreme event Dry period: 2 or more black cards Ace to 10 Shuffle your deck and deal cards 1 at a time. Count # dry periods Length of longest dry period Did extreme event occur during a dry period? Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card Game

Example Dry period: 2 or more black cards Ace to 10 # dry periods Length of longest dry period Did extreme event occur during a dry period? Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card Game 3 dry years with extreme event 4 wet years with extreme event 2 dry years

Lessons Learned Climate Variability vs Climate Change Card Game Current climate and future modified climate are both highly variable Each “sample” gave a different result An increased probability of dry conditions did not guarantee dry conditions Several “samples” are needed to understand possible trends