Impact Evaluation 4 Peace March 2014, Lisbon, Portugal 1 Youth retraining programs for the reconstruction of social fabric Alberto Diaz-Cayeros Stanford University Latin America and the Caribbean’s Citizen Security Team

Challenge of territories where state has failed State has the capacity to provide public services But incapable of ensuring public safety Police corruption and incompetence Youth at risk due to lack of opportunities Ni estudia Ni trabaja (nini) 2

3 State cannot even patrol the small towns and neighborhoods

Gang activity and underlying insecurity that is not directly related to drug traffic 4

5

Challenge was geocoded all participants Matched sample of youth outside Zapopan municipality Analysis of targeting using census tracts (~4000 inhabitants) and electoral precincts (~700 voters) Two year panel study to measure employment, school enrollment, self esteem 6

Evaluation fraught with many challenges Oversampling of youth with no internet access Use of social media for information of program and enrollment Attrition in the panel expected to be high Cost of evaluation compared to program Local government capacity to partner in evaluation 7