SMART INCO-MED 5 th Management Board Meeting, January Grenoble, France DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen DDr. Kurt Fedra ESS GmbH, Austria Environmental Software & Services A-2352 Gumpoldskirchen

SMART: Project Overview 09:15 – 10:15 3 year duration to August 2005 Started: September 2002 Current PM: 29 of 36 Or about 80% !!! 7 months left. 3 year duration to August 2005 Started: September 2002 Current PM: 29 of 36 Or about 80% !!! 7 months left.

SMART: time table

SMART

SMART: Work Plan Phases 1.Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications 2.Data compilation, tool development 3.Parallel case studies 4.Comparative evaluation, dissemination. 1.Requirements analysis, data availability, specifications 2.Data compilation, tool development 3.Parallel case studies 4.Comparative evaluation, dissemination.

SMART: Milestones 1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first workshop – DELAYED (1 month) 2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase 3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first results of scenario analysis ??? 4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase 5 PM 30 Case studies completed, comparative analysis 6 PM 36 Project and reporting completed 1 PM 09 End of preparatory phase, first workshop – DELAYED (1 month) 2 PM 12 Methods and tools prototypes ready, start of operational phase 3 PM 18 Case studies implemented, first results of scenario analysis ??? 4 PM 24 Analysis and assessment phase 5 PM 30 Case studies completed, comparative analysis 6 PM 36 Project and reporting completed

SMART: work packages WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis completed WP 01: Requirements and constraints analysis completed

SMART: work packages WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines nominally completed, indicator definitions and data compilation/analysis not yet completed WP 02: Socio-economic framework and guidelines nominally completed, indicator definitions and data compilation/analysis not yet completed

SMART: work packages WP 03: Analytical tools, models SOGREAH, PM 3-18 TELEMAC (scenarios completed ?) WaterWare (LUC, RRM, WRM) Nominally completed, web implementation of LUC, RRM, WRM complete, but no fully operational (calibrated) or complete scenarios yet. HOW TO PROCEED ? WP 03: Analytical tools, models SOGREAH, PM 3-18 TELEMAC (scenarios completed ?) WaterWare (LUC, RRM, WRM) Nominally completed, web implementation of LUC, RRM, WRM complete, but no fully operational (calibrated) or complete scenarios yet. HOW TO PROCEED ?

SMART: work packages WP 04: Data compilation and analysis SUMER leads, PM 6-24 Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for each case study/country SHOULD BE COMPLETED !!! Deliverable due in February. WP 04: Data compilation and analysis SUMER leads, PM 6-24 Includes parallel sub-tasks, one for each case study/country SHOULD BE COMPLETED !!! Deliverable due in February.

SMART: WP04 1.Develop meta-data structure 2.Formats, technical specifications 3.Coverage and resolution (space and time) 4.Develop checklists 5.Monitor compilation: WHERE ARE WE ??? 6.DATA BASE IMPLEMENTATION (on-line, with ESS) 7.Comparative analysis (completeness, consistency, plausibility) 1.Develop meta-data structure 2.Formats, technical specifications 3.Coverage and resolution (space and time) 4.Develop checklists 5.Monitor compilation: WHERE ARE WE ??? 6.DATA BASE IMPLEMENTATION (on-line, with ESS) 7.Comparative analysis (completeness, consistency, plausibility)

SMART: WP04 OBJECTIVE and PRODUCT (the PLAN): Common, consistent data base Extensive documentation/Meta data ! On-line access and analysis Accessible from the project web site with interactive display and basic on-line analysis tools: GIS, TimeSeries Map server at CEDARE – Egypt CS example on-line – any data submitted ? OBJECTIVE and PRODUCT (the PLAN): Common, consistent data base Extensive documentation/Meta data ! On-line access and analysis Accessible from the project web site with interactive display and basic on-line analysis tools: GIS, TimeSeries Map server at CEDARE – Egypt CS example on-line – any data submitted ?

SMART: WP04 1.Common Land Use classification (CORINE) 2.INDICATORS (WP2/WP10): FEEM/UATLA: TO BE FINALIZED 3.BASIN DATA, MODEL INPUTS and SCENARIOS 1.Common Land Use classification (CORINE) 2.INDICATORS (WP2/WP10): FEEM/UATLA: TO BE FINALIZED 3.BASIN DATA, MODEL INPUTS and SCENARIOS

SMART: WP05-9 Scenario definitions (for all models !) : 1.Base line (calibration) 2.Business as usual 3.Worst case 4.Optimistic incomplete according to the SUMER spreadsheets, no operational on-line scenarios ready to run/analyse Scenario definitions (for all models !) : 1.Base line (calibration) 2.Business as usual 3.Worst case 4.Optimistic incomplete according to the SUMER spreadsheets, no operational on-line scenarios ready to run/analyse

SMART: work packages WP 05 – 09 Case Studies Respective partner, PM 12-30, Overlaps with data compilation Actual case study work to have started in September 2003 WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed !!! WP 05 – 09 Case Studies Respective partner, PM 12-30, Overlaps with data compilation Actual case study work to have started in September 2003 WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed !!!

Case Study reports: WP 05 – 09 Case Studies PM (NOW: 29 ?!), Overlaps with data compilation Actual case study work to have started in September 2003 WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed NOW. WP 05 – 09 Case Studies PM (NOW: 29 ?!), Overlaps with data compilation Actual case study work to have started in September 2003 WHICH WAS 17 MONTHS AGO and should be completed NOW.

Case Study reports: Reports are due: MAY 2005 Proposed content (common structure) Template for the reports: proposed on ~/SMART/casestudytemplate.html Build on WP01, WP04 Use model data bases/scenarios Use model results, screendumps Reports are due: MAY 2005 Proposed content (common structure) Template for the reports: proposed on ~/SMART/casestudytemplate.html Build on WP01, WP04 Use model data bases/scenarios Use model results, screendumps

Case Study reports: Tabular comparison of scenarios: Main assumptions (discuss, relate to WP02) 1.Structural change (network, strorage, sources) 2.Demand change (absolute, by sector – use model summary pages to document for common structure, easy comparison) 3.Allocation (priority/rule changes) 4.Efficiencies and losses 5.Performance (supply/demand, reliability, coastal WQ) Tabular comparison of scenarios: Main assumptions (discuss, relate to WP02) 1.Structural change (network, strorage, sources) 2.Demand change (absolute, by sector – use model summary pages to document for common structure, easy comparison) 3.Allocation (priority/rule changes) 4.Efficiencies and losses 5.Performance (supply/demand, reliability, coastal WQ)

SMART: work packages WP 10: Comparative analysis FEEM, PM Requires input from all case studies (FEEM presentation) Based on indicators and scenario definitions/results WP 10: Comparative analysis FEEM, PM Requires input from all case studies (FEEM presentation) Based on indicators and scenario definitions/results

SMART: work packages WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation ESS, PM 3-36 (Web server) EXPLOITATION STRATEGIES: CONTINUOUS UPDATES for the plans per partner and country (PPR 3). WP 11: Dissemination and exploitation ESS, PM 3-36 (Web server) EXPLOITATION STRATEGIES: CONTINUOUS UPDATES for the plans per partner and country (PPR 3).

WP 11: Dissemination Web site (images, links, contributions: don’t be shy, please do send material such as case study descriptions/extensions !!!Web site (images, links, contributions: don’t be shy, please do send material such as case study descriptions/extensions !!! Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature (CONFERENCES ?)Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature (CONFERENCES ?) Local workshopsLocal workshops NETWORKINGNETWORKING –Informal network, start with a common address data base – on-line ? INCOMPLETE, no activity reports Web site (images, links, contributions: don’t be shy, please do send material such as case study descriptions/extensions !!!Web site (images, links, contributions: don’t be shy, please do send material such as case study descriptions/extensions !!! Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature (CONFERENCES ?)Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature (CONFERENCES ?) Local workshopsLocal workshops NETWORKINGNETWORKING –Informal network, start with a common address data base – on-line ? INCOMPLETE, no activity reports

WP 11: Dissemination Web site, other material ?Web site, other material ? Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature, manuscriptsMeetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature, manuscripts Local dissemination workshops (planning ?)Local dissemination workshops (planning ?) SMART: the eBook ?SMART: the eBook ? Web site, other material ?Web site, other material ? Meetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature, manuscriptsMeetings, conferences, scientific and technical literature, manuscripts Local dissemination workshops (planning ?)Local dissemination workshops (planning ?) SMART: the eBook ?SMART: the eBook ?

WP 10: Evaluation Aggregated into Sustainability Indicators 1.Economic efficiency 2.Environmental compatibility 3.Equity (intra- and intergenerational) Aggregated into Sustainability Indicators 1.Economic efficiency 2.Environmental compatibility 3.Equity (intra- and intergenerational)

WP 10: Evaluation EASY PRACTICAL SOLUTION: Use the indicators directly generated by the models: 1.Supply/demand ratio (global and sectoral) 2.Reliability of Supply % 3.CWQ (TELEMAC) standard violations EASY PRACTICAL SOLUTION: Use the indicators directly generated by the models: 1.Supply/demand ratio (global and sectoral) 2.Reliability of Supply % 3.CWQ (TELEMAC) standard violations

WP 10: Decision Support Comparative analysis of cases/scenarios in terms of the indicators; THE PLAN: Participatory approach: Stake holders define criteria, objectives, constraints, and expectations – DSS tool finds the nearest feasible solution in the set of alternatives. Comparative analysis of cases/scenarios in terms of the indicators; THE PLAN: Participatory approach: Stake holders define criteria, objectives, constraints, and expectations – DSS tool finds the nearest feasible solution in the set of alternatives.

WP 10: Decision Support Participatory approach: current status Stake holders: contact, inform, involve. CURRENT STATUS: On-line Stakeholder DB with ~100 entries, but MANY incomplete: –NO ADDRESS !!! or Contact Person/details –WITHOUT activity reports. These are the central part – actors should at least have been informed, better asked, invited, involved. Participatory approach: current status Stake holders: contact, inform, involve. CURRENT STATUS: On-line Stakeholder DB with ~100 entries, but MANY incomplete: –NO ADDRESS !!! or Contact Person/details –WITHOUT activity reports. These are the central part – actors should at least have been informed, better asked, invited, involved.

WP 10Decision Support Reference point approach: nadirnadir utopiautopia A1 A2 A3 A4 better efficientpoint criterion 1 criterion 2 A5 dominated A6

WP 10: Decision Support SIMPLE SOLUTION: 1.Eliminate dominated solutions 2.Use UTOPIA as reference point 3.Show results to stakeholders, obtain/analyze comments BUT: it still needs a set of alternative scenario results from the models SIMPLE SOLUTION: 1.Eliminate dominated solutions 2.Use UTOPIA as reference point 3.Show results to stakeholders, obtain/analyze comments BUT: it still needs a set of alternative scenario results from the models

SUMMARY: PROJECT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE. Strategy for safe completion: 1.Withhold CS2 payments 2.Organize additional, individual model workshops (at ESS ?) 3.Use on-line tools (new data bases) for direct extraction of report contents 4.Submit DRAFT reports early PROJECT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE. Strategy for safe completion: 1.Withhold CS2 payments 2.Organize additional, individual model workshops (at ESS ?) 3.Use on-line tools (new data bases) for direct extraction of report contents 4.Submit DRAFT reports early