William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Measurement and Structure of the Natural Economy

Advertisements

Emerging Growth: Mid- Decade Economic Trends University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research December 2014.

Measuring the US Economy Economic Indicators. Understanding the Lingo Annualized Rates Example: GDP Q3 (Final) = $11,814.9B (5.5%) Q2: GDP = $2,

Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.

State Budgets & The Economy Presentation to the National Association of State Auditors, Comptrollers and Treasurers Tony Hutchison, Director Oklahoma Office.

Economic Assessment William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Not So Silent Partners: Libraries and Local Economic.

Tracking the Recovery December 12, Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics.

U.S. Economic Outlook A Relatively Fast Manufacturing Growth Pace Amid Modest Gains In The Overall Economy Presented by: Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D. Vice.

The Long Road to Recovery Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. July 1, 2009.

Chapter 12 Managing the Macroeconomy. Stagflation: it occurs when recession and inflation takes place simultaneously in the economy.

Week 3.  The lesson today is going to center around the macro-economic forces which influence the US economy and the US large-cap companies.  How will.

Agricultural Economics Macroeconomic Situation and Outlook Fall 2003 Craig Infanger Larry Jones.

Economic Indicators. Concepts  Variables that provide information about the state of the economy.  Every economic indicator has a story to tell.  Need.

The Great Recession and Tennessee’s Revenue Outlook Bill Fox and Matt Murray UT’s Center for Business and Economic Research October 29, 2009.

Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Economic Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ.

Clark County Budget & Economic Outlook July 22, 2015 Work Session: Board of Clark County Councilors.

The Great Economic Unraveling of : Impacts on the U.S. and Texas Bernard L. Weinstein, Ph.D. Cox School of Business Southern Methodist University.

Economic Outlook March 2012 Economic Policy Division.

THE MEASUREMENT AND STRUCTURE OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY

The Economy and External Environment 10th Annual Georgia Idea Institute August 19, 2015 Bill Hampel, Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association.

Fifth Edition Update 2005–2006. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 2 Figure 1 Personal Savings Rate Chapter 2 Update: Wealth.

© The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2002 Week 8 Introduction to macroeconomics.

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville The Economy:As Optimistic as an Economist Can.

JASON SCHROCK ECONOMIST COLORADO LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL DECEMBER 7, The Economy and the State Budget: Tough Times.

GDP, the National Accounts, and Census Economic Data Brent Moulton March 15, 2007.

Chapter 13: Economic Performance Macroeconomics = study of any nation’s economy as a whole. Focus is on unemployment, inflation, growth, trade, and gross.

West Alabama Real Estate Summit Tuscaloosa, AlabamaAugust 24, 2012 Ahmad Ijaz Center for Business and Economic Research Culverhouse College of Commerce.

Measuring National Output Chapter 5. Economic goals  Economic growth  Full employment  Low inflation  An economy grows because of increases in available.

National Income Accounts and Balance of Payments Accounting.

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville The Economy Continues to Grow in 2015, Tax Revenues.

Gina Martin Wachovia Economics Economic Outlook Oil, the Fed, and Housing – Oh My! National Marine Bankers Association.

Presented to 2009 Tennessee Federal Tax Conference William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

PPR 2008: Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bonds Per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank.

Prepared by: Jamal Husein C H A P T E R 10 © 2005 Prentice Hall Business PublishingSurvey of Economics, 2/eO’Sullivan & Sheffrin Measuring a Nation’s Production.

Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.

1 20 C H A P T E R © 2001 Prentice Hall Business PublishingEconomics: Principles and Tools, 2/eO’Sullivan & Sheffrin Measuring a Nation’s Production and.

What of the future? Gabriel Martinez, Ph.D. Ave Maria University August , % 0.6%

Measuring Economic Performance Su, Chapter 4. What do we do with all that data? Measure the performance of the economy Learn more about economic performance.

Tennessee Economy and State Budget Outlook FISCAL REVIEW COMMITTEE STAFF January 20, 2010.

Chapter 12SectionMain Menu What Is Gross Domestic Product? Economists monitor the macroeconomy using national income accounting, a system that collects.

Inflation Report February Demand Chart 2.1 Consumer spending (a) (a) Chained volume measure.

Reading the Economy. Rate of Change New – Old Old 600 – 500 =.2 = 20% 500.

Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis

Introduction to Business © Thomson South-Western ChapterChapter Chapter 2 Measuring Economic Activity Economic Conditions Other Measures of Business Activity.

124 Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand. 125  What is the purpose of the aggregate supply-aggregate demand model?  What determines aggregate supply.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS November 2, 2012 New York, NY.

No 03. Chapter 2 Measuring Macroeconomic Variables.

Tennessee and U.S. Economic Update and Outlook Matthew N. Murray, Ph.D. October 2015.

Fiscal Cliff and Economic Indicators By: Nolan Wurm Matthew Schweikart.

Economic Outlook December 2014 Economic Policy Division.

Larry DeBoer Purdue University August Real GDP Growth.

Table 5.1 The Estimated Size of U.S. Manufactured Capital Stock (2004, end of year, trillions of dollars) Equipment and software5.4 Structures13.9 Residences14.8.

Introduction to the UK Economy. What are the key objectives of macroeconomic policy? Price Stability (CPI Inflation of 2%) Growth of Real GDP (National.

Fiscal Policy Activities 30b by Advanced Placement Economics Teacher Resource Manual. National Council on Economic Education, New York, N.Y.

Measuring the Economy. Vocabulary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP per Capita Base Year Business Cycle Prosperity Recession Depression Recovery Inflation.

National Income Accounting Dr. Dennis Foster. Total Expenditures Approach GDP = Gross Domestic Product GDP = Gross Domestic Product Market value of final.

  GDP (Gross Domestic Product) – Basic measure of a nation’s economic output and income. Total market value of all goods and services produced in the.

Economic growth Macroeconomics 1. Fundamental macroeconomic indicators Economic growth Unemployment Inflation 2.

National Economic Conditions

Economic Policy Division

Table 5.1 The Estimated Size of U.S. Manufactured Capital Stock

Budget Balance and Government Debt

National Income Accounting

Introduction to the UK Economy

Fiscal Policy: Spending & Taxing

National Income Accounting

National Income Accounting

2005 MTBPS 25 October 2005 Introduction Macroeconomic overview

National Income Accounting

Fiscal Policy: Spending & Taxing

Presentation transcript:

William F. Fox, Director Center for Business and Economic Research The University of Tennessee, Knoxville November 17, 2015 The 2016 Economy Looks Like 2015

2 DILBERT by SCOTT ADAMS William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Some Known Potential Shocks China, and worldwide slowdown Southern Europe and debt crisis Oil Prices Fed Rate Hike 3William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

4 Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

5 Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (Chained 2009 Dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

U.S. Regular Gasoline Prices 6William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Estimated Total E-Commerce Sales *Sales-taxing states only. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu7November 17, 2015

8 Total Consumer Debt Balance William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

9 Household Savings Rate William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

10 Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

11 Unit Sales of Existing Homes and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

All Housing Units, * William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

13 Growth in Quarterly Real Business Investment William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. 14William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu15November 17, 2015

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu16 Annual Deficits, 2002 to 2025 November 17, 2015

17 Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

18 U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Production, 1998–2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

19 Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

20 Tennessee Nonfarm Jobs, Seasonally Adjusted, 2004–2015 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

21 Tennessee & U.S. Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Tennessee Nonfarm Employment by Sector (September 2015 as a Share of December 2007) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu22November 17, 2015

Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending September 2014 to September 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu23November 17, 2015

24 Total State Budget, FY Where Your State Tax Dollar Goes William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

State & Local Tax Revenue as a Percentage of Personal Income, 2012 U.S. =10.5% Tennessee = 8.4% Greater than 10.5% (16) Less than 8.4% (1) 8.4% to 10.5% (33) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu25November 17, 2015

Tennessee Tax Revenues, Total and Share of Personal Income 26 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu November 17, 2015

27 Growth in Sales Tax Revenue 3-Month Moving Average, Year-Over-Year Increase William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

28 Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending July 2014 to July 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

29 Tennessee State Sales Tax Breadth of Base Source: State Tax Notes, Mikesell. William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

30 Rainy Day Fund by Fiscal Year William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Tax Cuts Gift tax Inheritance tax Lower rate for food Larger exemption for the Hall Income Tax November 17, 2015William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu31

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu32November 17, 2015

33 Higher Education Allocation, University of Tennessee *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

34 Higher Education Allocation, Board of Regents *Estimated **Recommended William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.eduNovember 17, 2015

Growth in Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu35November 17, 2015

Growth in Quarterly Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (chained 2009 dollars) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu36November 17, 2015

Growth in Quarterly Real Private Residential Fixed Investment and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu37November 17, 2015

Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles and Housing Starts William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu38November 17, 2015

U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate and Real Exports Less Imports William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu39November 17, 2015

Unified Federal Budget Surplus William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu40November 17, 2015

Interest Rates and Inflation William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu41November 17, 2015

Tennessee and U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth (year-over-year growth) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu42November 17, 2015

Tennessee Monthly Nonfarm Jobs, 2004–2015 (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu43November 17, 2015

Tennessee Employment Distribution by Industry, 2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu44November 17, 2015

Tennessee and U.S. Unemployment Rate (seasonally adjusted) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu45November 17, 2015

Tennessee Job Growth by Sector (Quarter Ending Sept to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu46November 17, 2015

Nonfarm Employment Growth, MSAs (Quarter Ending Sept to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu47November 17, 2015

Change in Total Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.8% Tennessee: 9.3% Less than 5.8% (29) 5.8% to 9.3% (11) Greater than 9.3% (10) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu48November 17, 2015

Change in Sales Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 5.2% Tennessee: 4.4% Less than 4.4% (19) 4.4% to 5.2% (11) Greater than 5.2% (15) n.a. (5) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu49November 17, 2015

Change in Corporate Income Taxes, January–March, 2014 to 2015 U.S.: 3.3% Tennessee: 65.8% Less than 3.3% (19) 3.3% to 65.8% (25) Greater than 65.8% (2) n.a. (4) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu50November 17, 2015

William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu51November 17, 2015

Actual Tax Collection Revenues and Revenues Adjusted for Inflation, 2003–2017 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu52November 17, 2015

Growth in Adjusted Tax Collections 1972–2017 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu53November 17, 2015

Growth in Sales Tax Revenue (3-month moving average) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu54November 17, 2015

Sales Tax Collections by Category of Sales (Quarter Ending Sept to Sept. 2015) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu55November 17, 2015

Realty Transfer and Mortgage Tax Collections (3-month moving average) William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu56November 17, 2015

Sales Tax Collections, Actual vs. Rate Adjusted, 1971–2014 William F. Fox Center for Business and Economic Research cber.haslam.utk.edu57November 17, 2015