Change Models – Types of Changes  Quality Adjustment – Do same things consistently  Incremental – Slight change to improve  Trend Adjustment – Adjust output to market  Evolution Step – Gradual major change  Revolution Step – Rapid major change  Paradigm Shift – Very rapid change to something totally different

Change Models  Help to respond to environmental change Some change just happens Some is planned by others  Help to anticipate and survive Those who see change happening can respond Those who ignore change don’t survive  To thrive you must be good at: Responding to a Change Anticipating a Change Driving the Change

Responding to a Change – Possible Responses  Remain Unaware  Ignore (Hope change will reverse)  Wait to see what others do & copy them  Just start doing something (play by ear)  Put together a detailed analysis and plan  BEST: Assess basis for the change, determine what else the change will impact, flexibly manage to maximize benefit from change.

Anticipating a Change  “You can and should shape your own future. Because, if you don’t, someone else surely will.” – Joel Barker  More difficult than responding  Provides opportunity to: Lead and affect the change Select what part of the change you want to influence Get into action early  Requires continual sensing of the outside

Critical Change Analysis  Critical Change Analysis – What if  Start from the Current State  Analyze major factors which could change the current state External influences  Respond Current Shortcomings  Necessitates Invention  Brainstorm the “What if’s”

Current State More or less Defined Critical Change Analysis ChangeNeeded Outcome 1 Outcome 2 Outcome 3 Outcome 4…..etc.

Large Volumes of Sand - Poor Access Conventional Heavy Oil Produce the Reservoir Stir Up the Reservoir Access Without Casing Enhanced In-Situ Separation Turn Into Opportunity

High Cost of Injectants for EOR Conventional Oil Low Cost InjectantSupplies Alternate Water Sources Carbon Dioxide Nitrogen Air or Oxygen

10-15% of Gas Used for Used forFuel Natural Gas ReduceFuelCosts Co-generation in Gas Treating Geothermal Co- generation Technology Acid Gas Injection Gas Liquefaction for Pipelines

Mainly Large Coal Fired Utilities Energy Generation Co-Generation Power from Wastes “Renewable”Sources Geothermal Co- generation Technology Deregulation & Distributed Generation

Driving the Change  Making things happen – Why not  Overcome Resistance to a Change Change = ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS SD = Sufficient Dissatisfaction V = Vision of what could be FS = First Steps to get there R = Resistance to Change must be Overcome SS = Support System to Make it Happen

Change Model – DHOWS Case Study  How it was used and reused to assess the situation for given changes.  Initial Concept  Testing philosophy  Demonstration  Commercialization  On-going

Water Management MinimizeWaterHandling Drill Somewhere Else Plug off in the Reservoi r Coning Control Downhole Separation High Cost of Handling Water ($1.2 b/yr)

Water Management  SD  Obtain water production & handling cost data  V  Lower costs and increase production  FS  Look at Options – Feasibility Study  R  “We’re doing as good as everybody else”; “We just sell off properties when they start watering out”  SS  Use real applications to assess

DHOWS Initial Concept DownholeOil/WaterSeparation Sieves & Screens Hydrocyclone Membranes Gravity Other Options Not Very Predictable

DHOWS Initial Concept  SD  Need better than hit and miss  V  Design system to match application  FS  Design Initial Prototypes  R  “No residence time in a well”; “Maybe when hell freezes over!”  SS  Build on proven systems

Testing Philosophy Minimum Test to Answer Questions Component Testing Lab Well Simulation Scale Models Field Well Tests DHOWS Concepts Simple But Unproven

Testing Philosophy  SD  Problems with past trials  V  Controlled Test with Low Risk  FS  Select an Optimum Candidate Well  R  “Too much Jewelry in the hole”; “Not measuring water quality”  SS  Field for initial tests well understood

Demonstration DemonstrationTestingRequired Well Simulator Testing C-FER Controlled Tests JIP Testing Semi-Commercial Tests Limits to Use Unknown

Demonstration  SD  One success not enough  V  Gradual development of a new standard required  FS  Get more units out there  R  “Costs more than just a pump”; “Why should my business unit take the risk”  SS  On-going C-FER/NPEL support

Commercialization User Guides & Training C-FER/NPEL Consulting or JV’s C-FER/NPEL Courses ProducerTraining Pump Vendors Through Sales Few People Know How DHOWS Works

Commercialization  SD  Everybody talks about it but no one uses it  V  Make DHOWS an industry option  FS  Education of the Producers  R  “We want to be on the leading edge, not the bleeding edge”; “It costs too much!”  SS  C-FER/NPEL courses/consulting

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C  SD  _____________________________  V  ______________________________  FS  _____________________________  R  ______________________________ ________________________________________  SS  _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C  SD  _____________________________  V  ______________________________  FS  _____________________________  R  ______________________________ ________________________________________  SS  _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C  SD  _____________________________  V  ______________________________  FS  _____________________________  R  ______________________________ ________________________________________  SS  _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________ ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C  SD  _____________________________  V  ______________________________  FS  _____________________________  R  ______________________________ ________________________________________  SS  _____________________________