PRELIMINARY VERSION ESS RFQ CDR 2 TIME SCHEDULE, PROJECT RISKS, RAMI AND SAFETY Anne-Catherine CHAUVEAU8th and 9th december 2015.

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Presentation transcript:

PRELIMINARY VERSION ESS RFQ CDR 2 TIME SCHEDULE, PROJECT RISKS, RAMI AND SAFETY Anne-Catherine CHAUVEAU8th and 9th december 2015

PRELIMINARY VERSION TIME SCHEDULE TUNER COUPLERS TEST CAVITY and AUXILIARIES PROTOTYPING COUPLER CONDITIONING COPPER RFQ MANUFACTURING RFQ ASSEMBLY and TESTS RFQ RE-ASSEMBLY and CONDITIONING RFQ PACKING and TRANSPORT MPP planning is more than 200 lines Manufacturer’s planning awaits confirmation | PAGE 2 Delivery to Lund due 13/03/18 Formal Handover due 16/07/18 Assembly in Saclay will start in parallel with sections manufacturing

PRELIMINARY VERSION 03/16 Pre-prod 08/16 Proto 06/16 TENDERS PLANNING CONNECTIONS Vannes Copper RFQ tender Process Qualif. 11/15 04/16 09/15 HIP 03/16 04/16 07/16 09/16 Sec.1 Machining Sec.1 ass. Brazing 12/16 Sec.2 ass. Brazing 02/17 RFQ Assembly RF tests De-ass. Packing RFQ partial SAR Transport Re- Assembly Conditioning RFQ Handover 03/17 01/18 02/18 03/18 04/1807/18 Tuner tender 11/15 Tuner manufact. 05/16 Aux. Copper Manuf. Ports and test cavity tender 10/15 04/16 09/15 01/16 Test cavity & Ports manufact. 04/1610/16 08/16 ∆= 6wks Serie 11/16 Tuner Proto manufact. Test cavity leak tests 06/16 11/16 ∆= 10wks 06/16 Test cavity assembly 05/16 12/16 12/15 03/16 Sec.1. Pre- assembly. Sec.2 Pre- assembly 01/17 03/17 Preserie 09/16 Serie 12/16 07/1602/17 Coupler tender 11/15 Coupler manufact. 05/16 02/17 12/16 02/17 ∆= 12mths Coupler conditioning 02/1703/ /16 ∆= 13wks ∆= 17wks Tight meeting points between tenders target dates. RFQ cavity is the critical path | PAGE 3 Production Ports needed for assembly and brazing on the remaining cavity sections. 10 weeks margin. Pre-production ports needed for assembly and brazing on the first cavity section. 6 weeks margin only. Tuner production needed for assembly of the remaining sections after delivery at Saclay 17 weeks margin. Couplers needed for RF tuning tests 12 months margin. Tuner pre-production needed for assembly of the first section after delivery at Saclay 13 weeks margin.

PRELIMINARY VERSION Lund delivery on february 2019Lund delivery on march 2018 Whole RFQ fully tested. Partial tests done on single sections to 4 assembled sections. Partial tests on full RFQ Assembly tools validation Alignment Tuners RF tuning Leak tests under full vacuumPartial Leak test Vacuum system and control validationFirst full assembly of vacuum system done in Lund Bead Pull measurement and voltage law Cooling system and control validationFAT for the SKID under simulated load drops Cooling piping system congestion verificationFirst assembly of cooling system done in Lund Verification of mechanical behavior under vacuum RFQ first time under operational vacuum will be done in Lund. IO plates brazed finger RF verificationIO plates with brazed fingers will be checked in Lund. Lund delivery on february 2019Lund delivery on march 2018 Whole RFQ fully tested. Partial tests done on single sections to 4 assembled sections. Partial tests on full RFQ Assembly tools validation Alignment Tuners RF tuning Leak tests under full vacuumPartial Leak test Vacuum system and control validationFirst full assembly of vacuum system done in Lund Bead Pull measurement and voltage law Cooling system and control validationFAT for the SKID under simulated load drops Cooling piping system congestion verificationFirst assembly of cooling system done in Lund Verification of mechanical behavior under vacuum RFQ first time under operational vacuum will be done in Lund. IO plates brazed finger RF verificationIO plates with brazed fingers will be checked in Lund. CHALLENGING TIME SCHEDULE In order to meet the ESS target date for delivery, CEA has worked on reducing the project planning.Test planning has been reduced by 6 months and manufacturing by 4 months thus adding risks on the time schedule | PAGE 4

PRELIMINARY VERSION 0, 0, 22, 0, 5, 57, 22, 57 Identification Rating Pre- Mitigation Disposition Rating Post- Mitigation Risk Label LevelTreatmentMitigation Strategy / main actionsLevel ("As a result of...")("There is a risk that...")("Resulting in...") Time schedule reduction of RFQ contract Auxilairies + Tuner + couplers contracts nor reaching RFQ contract on target time (from schedule point of view) Interruption in RFQ cavity manufacturing (assembly step) + RFQ final assembly 64 VERY HIGH Mitigation Set sub-critical contracts as priority in order to put them outside the critical path : ressources allocations, special adlinstrative procedure, pre-selection of bidders. Close follow-up of adminstrative durations 32HIGH Time schedule reduction of RFQ contract No single manufacturer able to sustain the schedule constraint No offer avaialble > Schedule32HIGHTransfertDelay to be tranfered to ESS32HIGH Time schedule reduction Procurement financial offers should be higher than expected Overcost32HIGHTransfertAdditional cost to be transfered to ESS32HIGH Time schedule reduction > Cooling system FAT only, no SAT (leak test, skid performance test) Cooling system performance not reaching its specifications during check-out at Saclay Investigation to be done directly in Acceleraor tunnel - defaut to be corrected > time schedule 32HIGHMitigation Mitigation : Water loss of pressure simulations in FAT (new in contract), Transfert : Cooling system assembly and leak test to be performed directly by ESS / Delays and additional cost to be tranfered to ESS to correct problem after shipment 32HIGH Only partial tests at sacaly More manmpower needed in Lund to finish CEA contribution Overcost32HIGHMitigation Change contract approach (with limitation in ressources according to intial cost) + all correcivtes cost to be supported by ESS => Cost & fee 32HIGH Time schedule reduction > End plate final assembly no RF tested (only dummy finger tested) End plate RF specification not achieved (with final components) End plate parts (gaskets,fingers, assembly process) defaut to be corrected > time schedule 16HIGHTransfertDelays and additional cost to be tranfered to ESS16HIGH Time schedule reduction > No final vacuum system integrated and Saclay Vacuum system performance not reaching its specifications (RFQ vacuum integrity still tested ) during validations at Saclay Investigation to be done directly in Acceleraor tunnel - defaut to be corrected > time schedule 16HIGHTransfert Delays and additional cost to be transfered to ESS if issues arise after shipment. 16HIGH Time schedule reduction > No final vacuum control system integrated and Saclay Vacuum control system not reaching its specifications during validations at Saclay Investigation to be done directly in Acceleraor tunnel - defaut to be corrected > time schedule 16HIGHMitigation Vacuum CS partially tested on vacuum chamber (Control system could be partially tested on 1 RFQ section ONLY if this can be done on hidden time thus not impacting time schedule. 8 MEDI UM Set sub-critical contracts as priority in order to put them outside the critical path (ie: tuner prototype) No mitigation  Mitigation : Water loss of pressure simulations in FAT Issues discovered in Lund will take longer to solve Change contract approach with limitation in ressources according to intial cost and correctives cost to be supported by ESS More CEA manpower needed in Lund to finish CEA contribution. Overcost Cooling system performance not reaching its specifications first time Procurement financial offers should be higher than expected Auxilairies + Tuner + couplers contracts not reaching RFQ contract on target time (from schedule point of view) No single manufacturer able to sustain the schedule constraint of 20 months CHALLENGING TIME SCHEDULE RISKS | PAGE 5

PRELIMINARY VERSION Identification Rating Pre- Mitigation DispositionRating Post-Mitigation Risk Label LevelTreatmentMitigation Strategy / main actionsLevel ("As a result of...")("There is a risk that...") Organization / Specific managerial aspects ERIC finalisation Unknown admistrative process with potential impact on-going call for tenders and schedule 32 HIGH MitigationMitigations at management level (see Management RR)16 HIGH Accelerator System team not stabilized. Engineering process not stable External RFQ interfaces not frozen in due time (CDR2) to finalize Tech Specs 64 VERY HIGH Mitigation CDR2 before manufacturing with high priority interfaces specification. Interface specification reviewed both by CEA and ESS 8 MEDIUM Individual components performance Beam Dynamics design issues … RFQ RF design does not match the all the performance requirements 32 HIGH MitigationCDR0 has reviewed all design topics / Qualification plan / Bead pull /16 HIGH Peak power very high, design based on SP2 under installation, Couplers not reaching specifications (800 kW) 64 VERY HIGH Mitigation The couplers will be tested on the test cavity / One coupler spare / Additional windows spares / Qualification plan (progressive steps) 32 HIGH Procurements Not enough applicants, over cost from tenderers, bad tendering process tenders process not concluded in due time32 HIGH Mitigation Anticipate as much as possible call for tenders even if specifications are not completely defined. The markets are closely followed. 8 MEDIUM Several company to deliver the auxiliairies parts, technological challenges (SS/Cu brazing), process qualification to reach, manufacturing schedules slippage Auxiliaries parts (esp. RFQ ports) to braze delivered too late to RFQ manufacturer 32 HIGH MitigationClose follow-up of manufacturers, Enhanced QA4 MEDIUM Manufacturing workload and internal bad arbitration from the manufacturer RFQ manufacturer late delivery32 HIGH Mitigation Define precise steps with the manufacturer to follow process dates We will request frequent meetings with manufacturer to follow process. Higher delivery penalties / incitations Market survey (Industry proper selection) 16 HIGH ESS issues Vacuum and its control system not delivered on time by ESS 16 HIGH Mitigation Enhance communication with vacuum and control teams. If possible, the pump used for all anticipated tests during prototyping and RFQ assembly will be identical to the final pumps in order to prove mechanical adjustment. Send 3D to vacuum team ASAP 16 HIGH Manufacturing process Bad behaviour of materials during brazing, senstive and new process for the selected company Difficulties to perform RFQ sections brazing 64 VERY HIGH Mitigation Check brazing experience prior to tender approval / Follow up process during manufacturing / Brazing process qualification / Cu Spare parts / Brazor expert is working with us to help on and follow brazing procedure. 16 HIGH Difficult manufacturing process (ceramic window brazing …) No manufacturing acceptance of Couplers (leaks, conditioning barriers, …) 64 VERY HIGH Mitigation One coupler spare + Manufacturing process with validation steps (NOT considered in current risk analysis : 2 or 3 spares in option / pre-serie qualification inc conditioning / Contract provisions) 32 HIGH Acceptance RF archs damaging critical parts of the cavityRFQ compromised during conditioning64 VERY HIGH Mitigation Progressive RF power ramp / Cleanliness cautions during manufacturing and assembly at Lund / RF expert for conditionning 16 HIGH Progressive RF power ramp.Cleanliness cautions during manufacturing and assembly. RF expert for conditioning One coupler spare + Manufacturing process with validation steps. Brazor expert is working with us to help on and follow brazing procedure. The couplers will be tested on the test cavity / One coupler spare Interface specification reviewed both by CEA and ESS RFQ compromised during conditioning (RF arcs damaging cavity) Manufacturing process issues for the couplers (ceramic window) Difficulties to perform RFQ sections brazing Couplers not reaching specifications because peak power is very high External RFQ interfaces not frozen in due time (CDR2) to finalize Tech Specs OTHER RISKS | PAGE 6

PRELIMINARY VERSION | PAGE 7 PROJECT RISKS SUMMARY No “Very High” level risks after mitigation Most risks concern the time schedule as it contains no margin. Most critical technical part is the coupler because it is a complex part and the power required is very high. Risk Workshop due in Lund on the 14 th of january

PRELIMINARY VERSION | PAGE 8 RAMI AND SAFETY RAMI: Reliability – Availability – Maintainability – Inspectability Very little maintenance on the RFQ itself if kept under vacuum (hydraulic channels cleaning), most are on the coupler (EPDM gasket, view ports replacement). No statistics on RFQ life time. Cooling system will be delivered with maintenance manual. CEA will provide technical inputs for the RAMI workshop. SAFETY No specific hazard under CEA responsibility on the RFQ. CEA applies the standard European safety rules and regulations. During work in Sweden, CEA will follow the Swedish rules and regulations. List of materials used will be provided to ESS (>90% consists in copper and stainless steel)

Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives Centre de Saclay | Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex T. +33 (0) xx xx | F. +33 (0) Etablissement public à caractère industriel et commercial | RCS Paris B | PAGE 9 CEA Saclay/Irfu projet ESS | DATE 有點不耐煩毀掉一個偉大 工程 A small impatience ruins a great project. En liten otålighet ruiner ett stort projekt Confucius

PRELIMINARY VERSION APPENDIX: RISK QUOTATION | PAGE 10