Buying a gift for the King’s children View as slide show How to solve complex problems Adapted from AdPrin.com

1. You are going to see a King 2. He has two children 3. You want to take presents for them but only have room for two 4. You find out that one child is a boy What is the probability that the other is a girl? Try to do it in your head. Adapted from AdPrin.com2

Complex and uncertain problems cannot be solved in one’s head No one believes this of course. The King’s problem is not really that complex, but hardly anyone can do it in their head. Go to the next slide for the answer.

Structured approach: One is a boy. There are only four ways people can have two children, and each way is roughly equal: 1 Boy Boy No 2 Boy Girl Yes 3 Girl Boy Yes 4Girl Girl NA Alternative #4 has been ruled out. Thus, the probability the other one is a girl is 2/3. This is a complex question. Explicit analysis (structuring the possible outcomes), leads to the correct answer. Adapted from AdPrin.com4

Based on this exercise, write a small application step for yourself, and set a deadline, preferably within one week. If you are working with someone else, share your application plan and the results of your application. The next time you face a complex problem, try to solve it using paper and pencil. Adapted from AdPrin.com