Census Coverage Measurement Survey Update 2010 State Data Center/ Census Information Center Steering Committee Meeting February 23, 2010 Thomas Mule US Census Bureau

2 CCM – Census Coverage Measurement Survey provides estimates of coverage error for people in housing units and for housing units: Excludes group quarters and remote Alaska Includes Puerto Rico No intent to adjust the census

3 Net Error Uses dual-system estimation, a sample capture-recapture technique Used in 1980, 1990, and 2000 Provides estimates of net undercount and overcount Key demographic groups Specific geographic areas Requires independence from census

4 Components of Census Coverage Error New objective for 2010 Provides estimates of: Correct enumerations – those included correctly by the census Erroneous enumerations – those included incorrectly by the census Imputations Omissions – those missed by the census Key demographic groups and by census operations

A.C.E. Measurement Error 2000 coverage measurement program failed to detect erroneous enumerations Many were census duplicates CCM Goal: R educe nonsampling error from the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.)

6 Sample Design of 2010 CCM Area sample of block clusters – groups of census collection blocks Population (P) Sample: Independent sample of housing units in block clusters. Recapture sample. Enumeration (E) Sample: Census enumerations in the same sample block clusters

7 Independent Listing Independent listing of area sample Canvass block cluster List addresses of housing units and potential housing units Timing: August-December 2009

8 Person Interview Laptop interview at independently listed addresses Personal visit Gather independent roster of people Probing questions about places where the person: Should have been counted Could have been counted Timing: August-October 2010

9 Person Matching and Followup Match people collected in CCM to census person list Computer Clerical Search throughout the country Computer nationwide search Clerical search at places the person could have been counted from the person interview Person Followup (personal visit and telephone, paper-based) Timing: October 2010 – April 2011

10 Current Plans for Estimation Domains for 2010 CCM Estimation domains have not been finalized so products shown here are current plans Break into 3 Major Groupings: Demographic/housing unit characteristic groups Geographic areas Census operation results

11 Examples of Estimation Domains for Demographic Groupings for People in Housing Units Demographic Groupings Net ErrorComponents of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousImputationsOmissions Race and Hispanic Origin Yes TenureYes Age/Sex Groupings Yes Individual Years of Age YesNo

12 Examples of Estimation Domains for Geographic Areas for People in Housing Units Geographic AreasNet Error Components of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousImputationsOmissions Type of Enumeration Areas Yes Bilingual Mailing Blocks Yes RegionYes Each StateYesUnder Review Under Review Under Review Under Review Substate Estimates (county, places) Under Review Under Review Under Review Under Review Under Review

13 Examples of Estimation Domains for Census Operations for People in Housing Units Census Operation/Results Net Error Components of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousImputationsOmissions Mail ReturnNoYes No NRFU enumerationNoYes No Operation Check-in Date Groupings NoYes No Coverage FollowupNoYes No

14 What about those people who should have been enumerated somewhere else? A table to show people who should been enumerated outside our block cluster search area. Same county Different county in the same state Different state

15 Examples of Estimation Domains for HU Characteristics for Housing Units Demographic Groupings Net Error Components of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousOmissions Occupancy StatusYes Tenure of Occupied Units Yes Type of Structure (Single, Multi-units) Yes

16 Examples of Estimation Domains for Geographic Areas for Housing Units Geographic AreasNet Error Components of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousOmissions Type of Enumeration Areas Yes RegionYes Each StateYesUnder Review Under Review Under Review Substate Estimates (county, place) Under Review Under Review Under Review Under Review

17 Examples of Estimation Domains for Census Operations for Housing Units Census Operation/Results Net Error Components of Census Coverage CorrectErroneousOmissions Field VerificationNoYes No Nonresponse Followup Vacant/Delete Check NoYes No

18 Housing units that were geocoded incorrectly A table to show housing unit geocoding results in relation to block cluster search area Geocoded to block cluster Geocoded one block outside of the cluster Geocoded beyond one block outside of the cluster

19 Reducing Nonsampling Error in the CCM Part of Decennial review conducted by Director Groves Identified areas in the CCM where efforts can be made to reduce nonsampling error

20 CCM Sample Size Reduced from 300,000 to 170,000 housing units American Indian Reservation and Hawaii sample remain same 1,000 target minimum state housing unit sample size

Evaluations and Assessments Evaluations Goals Examine results of 2010 Improve 2020 Assessments Every operation

22 Thanks!