Support for Implementation Strategy for 2008 SNA and supporting economic statistics in Arab countries High-Level meeting and Regional Seminar on the Implementation.

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Presentation transcript:

Support for Implementation Strategy for 2008 SNA and supporting economic statistics in Arab countries High-Level meeting and Regional Seminar on the Implementation 2008 SNA and Supporting Statistics in the Arab Region June 2013 Amman, Jordan

Introduction The 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) replaces the version from 1993 to better reflect statistics in modern societies. It helps decision-makers to get information on the structure and evolution of a country’s economy. access main macroeconomic indicators to monitor an economy’s overall performance. analyze the current situation, identify major problems and make economic forecasts for development. Mandates of UNSC and the ESCWA Statistical Committee, UNESCWA regards the compilation of national accounts and implementation of the 2008 SNA and supporting statistics as one of the priority areas in the Arab region within its regular work programme, as well as extra budgetary project proposals. In countries of the ESCWA region the National Statistical Offices (NSOs) are the primary institution responsible for the development and implementation of the SNA except in Egypt and Libya where the responsibility lies in the Ministry of Planning. In Lebanon, a special unit in the Council of Ministers was responsible for compiling national accounts and starting from June 2013, the Central Administration of Statistics will be responsible of compilation and dissemination of the National Accounts. The Central Banks and Ministries of Finance are also included in the framework as compilers of related economic statistics and data providers for the SNA compilation.

Strategies of implementation of 2008 SNA in Arab countries Regional strategies National strategies for statistics and for SNA implementation Methodological work Other Related Work in Economic Statistics

Setting an Implementation plan for 2008 SNA for Arab countries Global statistical initiative on the Implementation Programme for the 2008 SNA and supporting on the adoption of the 2008 SNA as the international standard for the compilation and dissemination of national accounts the need for coordinated action, not only at the international level but also at regional and sub-regional levels and emphasizes the need for close cooperation with regional commissions and sub-regional organisations. Each country was encouraged to review with its users the relevant changes from the 1993 SNA to the 2008 SNA that are applicable to the country and consider its adoption.

UNECE Example for Economies in Transition Stage I. Review of strategic framework and detailing of national and regional implementation programmes; Stage II. Adaptation of classification frameworks, business registers and frames, surveys, administrative data sources and information technology infrastructure; Stage III. Application of adapted frameworks and source data, backcasting and changeover to 2008 SNA.

Stage I. Identification of existing challenges, Dialogue with Users on needs and priorities, understanding changes to 2008 SNA I. مرحلة تحديد التحديات القائمة، والحوار مع المستخدمين على الاحتياجات والأولويات، وفهم التغييرات إلى 2008 A) Issue/Challenge Results of ESCWA questionnaires 2009 and 2011 أبرز التحديات التي تعوق التنفيذ نتائج مسوح اجرتها الاسكوا في 2009 و 2011 Work Needed العمل المطلوب Time Frame الإطار الزمني Need for TA الحاجة إلىدعم فني Incomplete coverage of national as a result of a lack of exhaustiveness of the accounts themselves. التغطية غير الكاملة للحسابات القومية بسبب نقص في شمولية الحسابات نفسها. Volume data: Constant price estimates of production-side aggregates are mostly based on the consumer price index, owing to the absence of a system of producer and wholesale prices, or on quantity indices of output. … كميات الإنتاج: غالباً ما تستند تقديرات الأسعار الثابتة للمجاميع المتعلقة بالإنتاج إلى مؤشر أسعار المستهلك نظراً إلى عدم توفر نظام لأسعار المنتج والبيع بالجملة، أو إلى المؤشرات الكمية للإنتاج.. The household sector is not always appropriately defined for the compilation of the sequence of accounts لم يتم تعريف قطاع الأسر المعيشية دائما بشكل مناسب لتجميع تسلسل الحسابات The Central Bank is not always treated as part of general Government عدم التعامل مع المصرف المركزي دائماً على أنه جزء من الحكومة

3 Stages Stage 1 Identification of existing challenges, Dialogue with Users on needs and priorities, understanding changes to 2008 SNA a) Identification of outstanding issues with 1993 SNA b) The main changes from 1993 SNA to 2008 SNA and their impacts c) Institutional agreements d) Prioritization based on user needs and available resources e) Inclusion of the implementation of 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the statistical office f) Adoption of detailed implementation action plans Stage 2 Review of work needed to support implementation of 2008 SNA a) Adoption of classifications and other improvements in business statistics and business registers b) Changes in business surveys to collect data for 2008 SNA c) Adaptation of administrative data sources to the new requirements d) IT and other changes Stage 3 Development of National Accounts and changeover to 2008 SNA Milestones

A) Issue/Challenge Results of ESCWA questionnaires 2009 and 2011 أبرز التحديات التي تعوق التنفيذ نتائج مسوح اجرتها الاسكوا في 2009 و 2011 Work Needed العمل المطلوب Time Frame الإطار الزمني Need for TA الحاجة إلىدعم فني Expenditure on oil exploration is not included in capital formation or even in the value of output, although several Gulf countries have major oil reserves and consequently significant exploration activities; عدم تخصيص خدمات الوساطة المالية المحتسبة على نحو غير مباشر للمستخدمين النهائيين؛ عدم إدراج الإنفاق على التنقيب عن النفط في تكوين رأس المال أو حتى في قيمة المخرجات، بالرغم من أن لدى العديد من بلدان الخليج احتياطات كبيرة من النفط وبالتالي نشاطات تنقيب هامة Reinvested earnings of foreign direct investment are not included in factor income from the rest of the world; عدم إدراج إيرادات الاستثمار المباشر الأجنبي التي أعيد استثمارها في دخل العوامل العائد إلى بقية العالم؛ Indirectly measured financial intermediation services are in most cases not allocated to the final users; عدم إدراج الإنفاق على التنقيب عن النفط في تكوين رأس المال أو حتى في قيمة المخرجات، بالرغم من أن لدى العديد من بلدان الخليج احتياطات كبيرة من النفط وبالتالي نشاطات تنقيب هامة؛ Fixed asset consumption estimates are weak, generating problems in the estimation of gross and net values. ضعف تقديرات استهلاك الأصول الثابتة مما يؤدي إلى مشاكل في تقدير القيم الإجمالية والصافية The development of mechanisms to identify the drawbacks in basic source data and determine the extent of its weakness, the main focus was centred on supply and use tables, وضع آليات لتحديد مكامن الضعف في بيانات المصادر الأساسية وتحديد مداها. التركيز على جداول العرض والاستخدام،

B) The main changes to 2008 SNA (see ESCWA background paper 2) B) The main changes from 1993 SNA to 2008 SNA and their impacts (Annex 3 of 2008 SNA) (ESCWA paper prepared by consultant Kotb Salem on behalf of ESCWA) and as result of survey sent by League of Arab States –Statistics Dep. ب. التغيرات في نظام الحسابات 2008 نسبة الى 1993 والاثار المترتبة والموقف التطبيقي في الدول العربية. ورقة أعدتها الإسكوا من قبل الاستشاري د. قطب سالم ونتيجة استبيان جامعة الدول العربية، دائرة الإحصاء. Work Needed العمل المطلوب Time Frame الإطار الزمني Need for TA الحاجة إلىدعم فني Further specifications of statistical units and revisions in institutional sectoring اولا : الوحدة الاحصائية ومراجعة التقسيمات القطاعية التنظيمة Specifications of the scope of transactions including the production boundary ثانيا :- مجال المعاملات بما في ذلك دائرة الانتاج : Extension and further specification of the concepts of assets, capital formation and consumption of fixed capital ثالثا : توسيع تحديدات مفاهيم الأصول وتكوين رأس المال واستهلاك رأس المال الثابت Further refinement of the treatment and definition of financial instruments and assets رابعا:علاج وتعريف الأدوات المالية والاصول Further specifications of the scope of transactions concerning government and public sector خامسا : تحديد نطاق المعاملات الحكومية والقطاع العام Harmonization between concepts and classifications of the SNA and BPM6 سادسا : المواءمة بين المفاهيم والتصنيفات في نظام الحسابات القومية والتنقيح السادس من دليل ميزان المدفوعات

C) Identification of main institutions involved in collecting and producing data for SNA and establishment of institutional agreements for 2008 SNA implementation ج. تحديد المؤسسات الرئيسية المشاركة في جمع وإنتاج البيانات لنظام الحسابات القومية ووضع اتفاقات مؤسسية لتنفيذ نظام الحسابات القومية عام Work Needed العمل المطلوب Time Frame الإطار الزمني Need for TA الحاجة إلىدعم فني D) Prioritization for 2008 SNA based on user needs and available resources د) تحديد الأولويات SNA 2008 حسب احتياجات المستخدمين والموارد المتاحة

E) Inclusion of the implementation of 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the statistical office ه) إدراج تنفيذ نظام الحسابات القومية 2008 في الخطة الاستراتيجية للمكتب الإحصائي National Strategies for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) in Arab Countries -Paris 21 Status Out of 13 No Strategy 323% Completed, awaiting adoption 323% Implementation 215% Strategy expired 538% Next NSDS planned 431% Lack of coverage for some basic statistical indicators: Nominal, real GDP, quarterly, and the index of production, producers price indices, labor market indicators, quarterly balance of payments, foreign trade statistics, government finance statistics, and environment statistics.... نقاط الضعف : التغطية وعدم الشمول لبعض المؤشرات الإحصائية الأساسية إجمالي الناتج المحلي الاسمي والحقيقي الربع سنوي، والرقم القياسي للإنتاج، ومؤشر الأرقام القيا سية لأسعارا لمنتجين، ومؤشرات سوق العمل، وميزان المدفوعات الربع سنوية، إحصاءات التجارة الخارجية، و إحصاءات المالية العامة، وإحصاءات البيئة.... Unified Strategy for Statistics for the GCC الإطار العام للإستراتيجية الإحصائية الموحدة لدول المجلس

Stage 2, Review of work needed to support implementation of 2008 SNA المرحلة 2، استعراض الأعمال اللازمة لدعم تنفيذ نظام الحسابات القومية لعام 2008 a) Adoption of classifications and other improvements in business statistics and business registers أ) اعتماد التصنيفات وتحسينات أخرى في الإحصاءات التجارية والسجلات التجارية b) Changes in business surveys to collect data for 2008 SNA ب) التغييرات في استقصاءات الأعمال التجارية لجمع البيانات لعام 2008 SNA c) Adaptation of administrative data sources to the new requirements ج) التكيف من مصادر البيانات الإدارية للمتطلبات الجديدة d) IT and other changes د) تكنولوجيا المعلومات وغيرها من التغييرات

Stage 3. Development of National Accounts and changeover to 2008 SNA المرحلة 3. تطوير الحسابات القومية والتحول إلى 2008 SNA Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP المعلم 1. المؤشرات الأساسية من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي Milestone 2. GNI and other primary indicators المعلم 2. الدخل القومي الإجمالي والمؤشرات الأولية الأخرى Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts المعلم 3. حسابات القطاع المؤسسي

Proposed recommendations from the meeting participants Urging governments to provide political support to develop an implementation strategy for 2008 SNA regarding legislation, financing and institutional set-up and coordination. Calling on NSOs in the Arab Region in coordination with main national partners to develop the 2008 implementation strategy with goal setting and time line for implementation - Review of current status/papers on national accounts to include in strategy, Identify work needed; and Change over to 2008 SNA. Calling on international and regional organization and donors to support countries in their implementation plans by providing technical support and funding. Providing assistance to the already established technical Committee on National Accounts of the League of Arab States Coordinating efforts on technical assistance and capacity building on 2008 SNA by ESCWA, League of Arab Sates, IMF/METAC, UNSD and SESRIC.