TF HTAP, TF IAM, Vienna, February HTAP-GAINS scenario analysis: preliminary exploration of emission scenarios with regard to the benefits of global cooperation. Rita Van Dingenen, Frank Dentener (JRC), Chris Heyes, Zig Klimont (IIASA) Examples A prototype for HTAP

Examine transport of air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere, including ozone (precursors) and PM and components (including black carbon), mercury, and persistent organic pollutants. Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and outside the UNECE region Assess their impacts on regional and global air quality, public health, ecosystems, near-term climate change Collaboration with other groups both inside and outside the Convention HTAP’s Mandate 2

Based on Wild et al, ACP, 2012 Previous HTAP scenario analysis based on HTAP Phase 1 multi-model simulations Annual average ozone changes in Europe for various scenarios

From emissions to impacts: the FAst Scenario Screening Tool: TM5-FASST Emissions considered: - SO 2, NO x, NMVOC, NH 3, CO ; CH4, Elemental Carbon, Primary Organic Matter, other primary PM Examples of impacts considered: - PM 2.5 and O 3 surface concentration and population exposure - O 3 metrics for crops and vegetation exposure + impact on yield loss - Radiative forcing and CO 2eq of SLCFs (GWP and GTP based) - Temperature trend for selected time horizons and emission trajectories of pollutants and CO 2 - Deposition of BC to the Arctic /Himalayas -Deposition of nitrogen and impacts on sensitive ecosystems Global Source - Receptor model for air pollutants, radiative forcing and deposition Simplified linear emission-concentration/forcing/deposition relations between regions Uses TM5-CTM output (2-way nested model, 1°x1° over multiple zoom regions)

TM5-FASST Overlaps with a ranges of IAMs (e.g. IMAGE-MESSAGE-POLES) The HTAP regional mask is fairly consistent

TM5-FASST:

HTAP 2 GAINS Global Emission Scenarios: NFC: No-further-control: what if technology and legislation would stagnate on current levels CLE: Current legislation would be implemented (but no new policies made) MFR: Maximum Feasible Reduction (all currently known technology implemented) Timeframe: Example of HTAP policy relevant questions: How would the regional pollution change due emission developments within the region compared to those outside for the given emission scenarios? What would be the global benefit of progressive emission reduction within a specific region?

Function of atmospheric concentrations, population density and exposure-response functions

How would the regional pollution change due emission developments within the region compared to those outside for the given emission scenarios?

Where is it coming from? Change in Particulate Matter 2050 CLE MFR

Where is it coming from? O3 change by emission source region: 2050 CLE MFR

If China would go MFR in 2030, and the rest of the world stays on CLE? Benefits for crops by reducing ozone!

Conclusions: Preliminary results using TM5-FASST Shows the potential of evaluating regional and global benefits of air pollution controls. Health, crops, and climate impacts HTAP 2 will provide updated and evaluated model results using ensembles of global and regional models=> improved estimate of impacts and involvement of modelers worldwide These modeling tools provide the opportunity to evaluate additional scenarios and assumptions: - country perspectives on emission reductions - a set of country perspectives - etc.

Extras

Change in direct forcing in 2030 due to China MFR and RoW CLE