American Government and Organization PS1301 Tuesday, 21 September.

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Presentation transcript:

American Government and Organization PS1301 Tuesday, 21 September

Announcements Midterm scheduled for Thursday Please do not forget scantrons Also bring a photo id

How do people decide who to vote for? Prospective Model (Michigan) Party identification Party identification Candidate characteristics Candidate characteristics Issue positions Issue positions Retrospective Model Party identification Party identification Evaluation of the past Evaluation of the past

Party Identification “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?” Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat). Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

Distribution of Partisans

Ideology and Partisanship

Functions of Party Identification Helps you organize and categorize information Perceptual Screen Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted? Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted? Influence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. Persons who are party identifiers are more interested in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote party id is the most important determinant of the way people vote

Partisanship over time

Influence of Party Id

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Campaign Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

Character

Perception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of Candidates

Requirements for Issue Voting Aware of the issue Care about the issue Perceive difference between the candidates Correct about the difference

Criteria for Issue Voting

Retrospective Voting Party identification Evaluation of the past economic indicators, “It’s the economy, stupid” economic indicators, “It’s the economy, stupid” Wars WarsIncumbency