How are Opinions Influenced by Political Campaigns?

Introduction The On-Line Model The 2001 General Election Campaign

MEMORY BASED MODELS VS ON-LINE MODEL

PEOPLE FORGET… A LOT In a week, half of subjects will not be able to remember a single gist In a month, only 3 in 10 people will be able to remember anything at all

Some More Evidence

And More Evidence

Causal Model

The 2001 General Election Campaign H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley. Political Choice in Britain. (Oxford University Press, 2004)

Background to the 2001 Campaign The Labour Party Campaign The Conservative Party Campaign The Liberal Democrat Campaign

Dimensions of UK Election Campaigns Temporal Dimension Spatial DimensionLong CampaignMedium CampaignShort Campaign Central Government Policies Organisational Structures EstablishedPolicy Initiatives Government News ManagementPreparation of ManifestoPublication of Manifesto Opinion PollingHire Advertising AgencyNews Conferences Other ElectionsPrioritise ConstituenciesSpeeches/Interviews Party Election Broadcasts Party Advertising Centrally Co-Ordinated at Local Level Reselection of MPsVoter IdentificationRegistration of Postal Voters Local Selection of CandidatesLeaflet Distribution Candidates Speeches/Interviews

Conversion vs. Activation

Exposure to the Campaign

Effects of the Campaign

Changing Vote Intentions

Modelling Direct Effects Labour 1. Labour mobilisation and spending increased a person’s chance of voting Labour 2. Pre-election intention to vote Labour remained the biggest indicator 3. But the Labour campaign was successful 4. The view of the Labour leader had massive effect Conservatives 1. Pre-election intention to vote Conservative also remained the biggest indicator 2. Exposure to Labour campaign effected Conservative voters 3. Prior Voting Intention had less effect on Conservative voters Liberal Democrats 1. Lib Dem voting was boosted by their campaigning efforts 2. Lib Dem voters were more likely to be swayed by the Conservative campaign

Conclusions 1. Strong support for OL model in contrast to Memory based model 1. People forget information, but remember the affective evaluation 1. Political campaigns have far reaching dimensions 1. UK General Election campaigns influence voter choice

References M. Lodge, M. Steebergen and S Brau. ‘The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation’. American Political Science Review, 1995 vol 89: H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley. Political Choice in Britain. Oxford University Press, 2004.