2013 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research.

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Presentation transcript:

2013 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research

US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2009 to 2011) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

US and Missouri Compared (Percent Change in Real GDP by Sector 2010 to 2011) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Business Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Real Estate Loans Thds of 2012:2 SA dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Bank Loans Past Due days (thds of dollars) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 90+ days (thds of dollars) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

$4.62 $3.26 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

$3.26 $19.80 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Real Personal Income (2012:2 Constant $ SAAR and CAGR Trends) 2.9% 1.7% 2% Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Growth in Real Personal Income (Year over Year) 1.4% Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2011 to 2012) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Dollar Change in Real Average Weekly Wages (2007Q4 to 2012) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

US and Missouri Home Prices (1980:Q1 = 100 ; Constant $1980) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

US and Missouri Home Prices Year over Year Percent Change Bureau of Economic Research MSU

City Level Housing Prices (1995:1 =100; 1995 constant $) KC 106 STL 112 Joplin 106 Spfd 94 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

New Single Family Home Permits per 10,000 population Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Unemployment Rate Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri-US Unemployment Rate Difference Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Major City Unemployment Rates Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Other Unemployment Rates Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Current County Unemployment Rate September 2012 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Labor Force in Missouri Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Labor Force in Missouri 1.6% 0.6% -0.9% Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Year to Year Change in Missouri Labor Force Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Employment Peak of 2,914,418 Dec Trough of 2,755,850 Dec Average 2,794,099 Current 2,780, = March 1997 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Index of Missouri and US Employment (Jan 2000 = 100) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

US and Missouri CPS Employment (Nov 2007 =100) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Percent Change in County Employment September 2011 to September 2012 Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri CES and CPS Employment Compared Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri CES and CPS Employment Compared Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Missouri Employment Breakdown IndustryJan-12Sep-12Change Change in Percent Employ (CPS) SA2,812.92, Nonfarm (CES) NSA2,593.82, Nonfarm (CES) SA2,650.42, Private2,217.12, Construction Financial Government Health Information Leisure Manufacturing Mining Prof Biz Services Retail Trans/Utilities Wholesale Other Services Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Monthly Change in Employment (CPS) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Monthly Change in Employment (CES) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Construction (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Manufacturing (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Financial (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Health/Education (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Retail (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Government (thds) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Where is Missouri Growing? (January 2012 to today) Kansas City (-2,946) St. Louis (496) MSA Minor (-3,200) Rural (-8,954) Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars Bureau of Economic Research MSU

2013 Missouri Forecast Industry2013 FChange (thds) Nonfarm (CES) 2, Private 2, Construction Financial Government Health Information Leisure Manufacturing Mining Prof Biz Services Retail Trans/Utilities Wholesale Other Services Unemployment Rate (SA) 6.10% Real Personal Income (Millions) 241,2204,265 Bureau of Economic Research MSU