Uncertainties in soil and terrestrial carbon response to 20th century human CO 2 emissions J.-F. Exbrayat 1, Q. Zhang 2, A. J. Pitman 3, G. Abramowitz.

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Presentation transcript:

Uncertainties in soil and terrestrial carbon response to 20th century human CO 2 emissions J.-F. Exbrayat 1, Q. Zhang 2, A. J. Pitman 3, G. Abramowitz 1 and Y.-P. Wang 4 1 Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney 2 College of Global Change and Earth System, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China 3 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW, Sydney 4 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research CoE CSS Annual Workshop, Hobart 26/09/2012

Global carbon cycle Source: IPCC AR4 (image downloaded from

Terrestrial Carbon Budget in a nutshell Homeostatic pre-industrial conditions: carbon uptake = release (GPP ~ R h ) GPP enhanced by anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO 2 (fertilisation) Release (R h ) favoured by increasing temperatures Up to now, the gain in GPP is higher than the gain in R h = net uptake From Wania et al. [2012 GMD]

Limitations in nutrient availability slow down the carbon cycle R h response to soil temperature and soil moisture Sources of uncertainty From Zhang et al. [2011 GRL] From Exbrayat et al. [2012 under review]

Biogeochemical model within CABLE Coupled to CSIRO Mk3L GCM (3.2 lat x 5.6 lon) [Phipps et al., 2011 GMD] Several nutrient modes with corresponding limitations on C cycle: C-only, CN, CNP CASA-CNP model From Wang et al. [2010 BG]

R h parameterisation in soil biogeochemical models

Experiments 27 model versions: each combination of a moisture response function, a temperature response function and a nutrient mode Spin-up all model versions with pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 (284.7 ppmv) Transient runs of increasing atmospheric CO 2 from 1850 to 2005 Prescribed SSTs from CSIRO Mk3.6 driven by CMIP5 historical emission data [Rotstayn et al., 2012 ACP]

Simulated 20 th century NEA Emission data from Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Boden et al., 2010]

Comparison with independent estimates

Regional impact Regions in CDIAC data [Boden et al., 2010]

Regional offset

Conclusion Introducing NP limitations reduces the NEA but also narrows the uncertainty introduced by different parameterisations of R h NP limited models are well in agreement with independent estimates when considering different time windows of the period NP limitations reduce or even cancel the capability of regions to offset their emissions

Way forward What are the policy / trade scheme relevant implications of the regional results? Will the land surface remain a net sink? What is the effect of a more detailed N cycle (with separation of different inorganic N species) within CASA-CNP?

Thank you for your attention Questions? e: