1 Who Counts? United States Federal Statistics Margo Anderson University of Wisconsin -- Milwaukee

2 Margo J. Anderson and Stephen E. Fienberg (1999). Who Counts? The Politics of Census-Taking in Contemporary America. Russell Sage Foundation, New York (Revised Paperback Ed, 2001)

3 Census Encyclopedia

4 Federal Statistical System Decentralized: Census, BLS, NASS, NCHS, NCES, BJS, etc….. Federal: states also provide data through coordinating arrangements: vital statistics Chief Statistician (Katherine Wallman) resides in OMB and coordinates the system through “forms clearance.” Thus a relatively diverse system.

5 Useful Distinctions Survey Data: Data collected for research or policy purposes only, usually sampled: CPS, SIPP, ACS Administrative Data: Data collected for administrative functions and then reused or reorganized for statistical data analysis: State Unemployment records; property records.

6 Useful Distinctions… Publicly Collected Data: federal, state or local Privately Collected Data: –Trade Associations –University researchers –Private Businesses, including the “data industry”

7 Questions to consider… Who collected the data? Who tabulated and published it? Why is it published? What level of detail is available: –Geography –Breakdown categories –Time series

8 A Decennial Census Example Why is the census… –Important? –Controversial?

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10 Article 1, Section 2, of the U.S. Constitution "Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers….The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

11 Importance of the Census The United States was the first nation in the history of the world to take a population census and use it allocate seats in a national assembly according to population. The U.S. has had one of the most demographically dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the world.

12 Pitcher Commemorating the 1790 Census

13 Growth of the U.S Population

14 Growth in the Size of the House of Representatives

15 Admitting States to the Union

16 The First Gerrymander, 1812

17 Counting vs. Estimation Ongoing debate and controversy in the U.S. and elsewhere. Census data are fallible and often fraught with error. Census-taking is a statistical process and is enhanced by the use of the statistician’s full arsenal.

18 Planning Census 2000 Controversies from 1990 affected 2000 planning: cost and quality of data Republicans and Democrats took opposing positions on census methods……. Could the differential undercount of minorities be lessened with a sample survey and dual systems estimation?

19 Planning... Newt Gingrich sued Bill Clinton over sampling The Supreme Court decided (January 1999): –Sampling could not be used for non response follow up –Sampling could be used for the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Program

20 The Advertising Campaign Census participation is a “civic” duty Census Director Kenneth Prewitt conducted a highly visible promotional campaign Congress appropriated $167 million for a professional advertising campaign Census website provided daily updates of response rates (March-April 2000)

21 Census 2000 in Process A mail census to 120 million addresses (March 2000) Response rate: 67% for short form The long form controversy –one sixth of households receive long form –radio talk show hosts challenge long form –George W. Bush and Trent Lott sympathize with those who do not want to fill out the form

22 Sampling for Coverage Evaluation 314,000 households surveyed in summer 2000 Results were matched to April returns Commerce Department (Clinton administration) gave Census Bureau authority on whether to adjust the census

23 American Community Survey The long form controversy led to new spotlight on Census Bureau’s proposal to replace the long form in 2010 ACS was compared to 2000 long form results Census Bureau proposes full implementation in 2003 Funding is still precarious

24 Race and Ethnicity in the Census The rest of the constitutional language: –“Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons.”

25 Classification of Race and Ethnicity “Standards for Maintaining, Collecting, and Presenting Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity,” are promulgated by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) The new classification of race permits respondents to “select one or more” racial group.

26 Race and Ethnicity, continued Categories for race: –American Indian or Alaska Native –Asian – Black or African American – Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander –White –Other (on census) Categories for ethnicity: –Hispanic or Latino – Not Hispanic or Latino

27 The Statistical Policy Directive can be tabulated in 63 census racial groups, that is the six main groups plus 57 multiple combinations. The 63 groups can be cross classified by Hispanic origin, allowing for 126 racial and ethnic categories. Race and Ethnicity, continued

28 Apportionment Results On December 28, 2000, Director Prewitt announced a population of 281,424,177 An increase of 33 million from % growth rates was fastest in half century 12 congressional seats changed

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30 Winners and Losers Winners –Georgia –Florida –Texas –Arizona –California –North Carolina –Colorado –Nevada Losers –Connecticut –New York –Pennsylvania –Ohio –Indiana –Michigan –Wisconsin –Oklahoma –Mississippi

31 Redistricting Data and Decision not to Adjust The redistricting file, PL , must be released by April 1 of the year after the census (2001) The Bush administration opposed sampling and revoked the rule delegating authority to the Census Bureau Acting Director Barron announced a decision not to adjust the redistricting file on March 1

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33 Redistricting, continued... ESCAP “determined that they could not conclude that the data for legislative redistricting collected during Census 2000 would be improved by adjustment through the statistical method known as sampling.” Dueling Estimates: –Census: –Demographic Analysis: –ACE adjusted: 284.7

34 Census Geography

35 Demographic Results Race and ethnicity: –75.1% White –12.3% Black or African American –3.6% Asian –.9% American Indian, Alaska Native –.1% Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander Race and ethnicity… –2.4% two or more races –5.5% some other race –Hispanic population grew 58% during the 1990s, to 35.3 million.

36 What’s Next…..

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38 Population Growth: 21 st Century Estimates

39 Congressional Apportment, 2010 Estimate

40 Congressional Apportionment, 2010 Estimate

41 Congressional Apportionment and the Cube Root of Population

42 Population Change,