Extreme precipitation over the Ukraine and global climate change Vyshkvarkova O., Voskresenskaya E. Marine Hydrophysical Institute National Academy of.

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Presentation transcript:

Extreme precipitation over the Ukraine and global climate change Vyshkvarkova O., Voskresenskaya E. Marine Hydrophysical Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Sevastopol, Ukraine

The aim of presentation is to study the precipitation inequality, precipitation extremes and their trends over the Ukraine associated with climate change Data: daily precipitation from Ukrainian hydrometeorological stations for period Methods: 1) concentration index (CI); 2) climate indices

Ukraine topographic map

Precipitation inequality Concentration index or Gini index (well known in economics) characterizes the inequality of the share of precipitation intensity into the total amount

Definition of Concentration index (CI) The line at 45 degrees represents perfect equality. The CI here can be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality Martin-Vide J., 2004

Annual CI distributions (1951 – 2005) CI varies from 0.58 in Carpathian region to 0.64 in the Black Sea and Azov coastal region min max

Seasonal CI distributions 0.54 The minimum CI value (0.54) is typical for the foothill of Carpathian Mountains in winter season and maximum CI value reached 0.71 in spring in boundary region between steppe and marine zones 0.71

CI trends distributions in NegativePositive Linear trends are mainly negative in the all of seasons The highest values of negative CI trend are typical for the west region, especially in autumn. Positive CI trends are located in south-eastern Ukraine year winter spring summer autumn

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Precipitation inequality in positive ( ) and negative phase ( )

Mantua N.J., et al., 1997 Climate shift 1976/1977 How does it work? А+ А- А+ Voskresenskaya E.N., Maslova V.N., 2011 Scheme of storm tracks in positive and negative PDO phases (PDO -) Cyclones frequency (PDO+)

Ukraine. Precipitation inequality

Climate indices Precipitation extremes

Absolute thresholds : The percentile threshold (95 th percentile) R30mm R20mm Indices of extreme precipitation

R20mmR30mm winter summer negativepositive Trends of R20mm and R30mm

Precipitation 95 th percentile winter The maximum values are in Crimea Mountains and the north-west coast of the Black Sea while minimum in north-west (forest zone). Linear trend are predominantly negative

summer Precipitation 95 th percentile Summer precipitation of 95 th percentile is characterized by a homogeneous distribution with values about 23 – 24 mm. Linear trends are predominantly positive

Conclusions Precipitation inequality increases southward of Ukraine from the north-west and the north-east. Annual and seasonal inequality linear trends are predominantly negative for the most part of the country. Precipitation inequality is more strong over the Ukraine in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation than in the positive phase. Linear trends of precipitation extremes are negative in winter and positive in summer on the most territory of Ukraine.

Thank you!