NCCCS Long Range Plans Meta-analysis

LRP Background Advanced Planning Funds Project $8 million for advanced facilities planning Long Range Plans Facilities Master Plans Comprehensive NCCCS Capital Plan Request Addresses “Fiscal Resources” Critical Issue 54 of 58 colleges submitted LRPs $64,000 question

Is the LRP going to become another NCCCS requirement?

Why a Meta-analysis? What is the utility? Identify & anticipate key institutional trends Identify & anticipate key institutional trends Used as rationale for NCCCS budget request Used as rationale for NCCCS budget request Reveals relationships Reveals relationships Raises questions Raises questions Suggests future research Suggests future research Trends analyzed Population Trends Population Trends Enrollment Trends Enrollment Trends Fastest Growing/Highest Demand Programs Fastest Growing/Highest Demand Programs

Population Trends CC Benefits Reports All 58 colleges Eighteen 5-year age groups Top five fastest growing age groups

Projected TOTAL POPULATION Increases Southeastern CC Haywood CC Coastal Carolina CCMitchell CC Actual Total Population Increases : 8.12% Median: 7.5% Minimum: -3%Maximum: 100%

Top 5 Fastest Segments Identified top 5 from each college Assigned values of 1-5 1=First Fastest Growing Age Segment 5=Fifth Fastest Growing Age Segment Averaged rankings across all colleges & segments N=58

Fastest Growing Age Groups

Top 5 Fastest Growing Age Segments yrs 48 colleges 2.2 composite score yrs 44 colleges 2.3 composite score yrs 52 colleges 2.5 composite score yrs 40 colleges 3.3 composite score 5.Under 5 yrs 30 colleges 3.5 composite score

Implications? Continued NC population growth Opposite ends of the age spectrum Challenges? Different generations Different generations Different types of community demands Different types of community demands Diverse educational needs Diverse educational needs

Enrollment Trends LRP Projection Methods Method 1: 5-yr average percent share of System FTE Method 1: 5-yr average percent share of System FTE Method 2: 5-yr average plus growth factor Method 2: 5-yr average plus growth factor Method 3: headcount conversion factor Method 3: headcount conversion factor Locally developed model including assumptions Locally developed model including assumptions Five colleges used locally developed model; Remainder split between Methods 1 & 2 N = 58 colleges Five-year period: Submitted for review to colleges

21% 24% 26% -4% Actual FTE Enrollment Increases

Projected FTE Enrollment Increases % 17% 10% 15% 4%57% 61%-11% 100%1% 57%3%

TOTAL Projected FTE Enrollment Increases Median: 18% South Piedmont CCWayne CC Randolph CC Lenoir CC Minimum: 4%Maximum: 57%

Projected CURRICULUM FTE Enrollment Increases Davidson County CC Wilson CC Stanly CC James Sprunt CC Median: 17% Minimum: 3%Maximum: 57%

Projected CON ED FTE Enrollment Increases South Piedmont CCHaywood CC Coastal Carolina CC Durham Tech CC Median: 15% Minimum: 1%Maximum: 100%

Projected BASIC SKILLS FTE Enrollment Increases Wilson CCJames Sprunt CC Tri-County CC Beaufort County CC Median: 10% Minimum: -11%Maximum: 61%

Implications? Median projections are modest Predictions Greater increase than past 5 year period Greater increase than past 5 year period Greater increase in Con Ed Greater increase in Con EdQuestions Basic Skills? Basic Skills? Intervening factors Increasing energy costs Increasing energy costs Increasing unemployment Increasing unemployment

Fastest Growing, Highest Demand Programs Qualitative data analysis By college developed a list of the programs mentioned in Key Implications sections of each LRP Fastest growing or highest demand Developed & then categorized programs by a program schema N=50

Programs mentioned most often in LRP Key Implications Sections 10 % 14% 16% 18% 20% 24% 28% 34% 36% 40% 48% 68 % 88%

Top five program categories Health-related (88%) Occupational Trades: construction, transportation, auto mechanics, real estate (68%) College transfer (48%) High school to college transition (40%) ABE/GED (36%) First responders: BLET, EMT, Fire (36%) Teacher education (36%)

Implications? Cost of health programs Continuing importance of “technical” programs Evidence of education’s importance in the Knowledge Economy Basic Skills FTE projection vs. anticipated growth of ABE/GED programming

Questions?

System Update Organizational changes Strategic Emphases

Organizational Changes Strategic Planning in President’s Office Research & Reports in the Exec VP Office Data Warehouse remains under Dr. Williams but is split Direct technical questions to Rick Newsome Direct technical questions to Rick Newsome Data needs to Terri Shelwood Data needs to Terri Shelwood

Strategic Emphases 1.Foster “system simplification” and facilitate colleges to be nimble, effective, efficient, and accountable. 2.Enhance completion rates and bridges between programs. 3.Foster opportunities and clearer pathways for low-income students. 4.Expand health care programs.

Strategic Emphases 5.Reenergize technical education. 6.Develop stronger training infrastructure and focused partnerships to enhance economic development. 7.Support drop-out prevention and increase outreach, awareness and college-readiness of middle and high school students.

Strategic Emphases 8.Enhance 2+2 partnerships through distance education and provide focus to strategic workforce areas of teachers, nurses, and engineers. 9.Focus on utility of technology to enhance student learning and customer service and promote economies of scale with educational partners.

Strategic Emphases 10.Foster community college champions and increase CC awareness.